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Penguins vs. Lightning Odds, Picks, Predictions: Vasilevskiy Key to Low-Scoring Rematch

Neil Parker

Last Updated: March 2, 2023 2:03 PM EST • 2 min 45 sec read.

Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning looks on during a game as we make our Lightning-Leafs SGP picks.
Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning looks on during a game against the Colorado Avalanche at Amalie Arena. Photo by Mike Ehrmann Getty Images via AFP.

It’s been a short turnaround since the Pittsburgh Penguins steamrolled the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-3 on Sunday. The two clubs meet again at Amalie Arena on Thursday, and the Bolts are a chalky favorite to avenge the disappointing defeat. Here’s sports betting analyst Neil Parker’s top NHL pick for the Eastern Conference showdown based on the best NHL odds.

The Lightning actually took a 2-1 lead into the second period of Sunday’s loss before the Pens scored six unanswered goals, a dominant stretch that included beating Bolts netminder Brian Elliott on three consecutive shots during a short 2:17 span.

Pittsburgh isn’t going to be as lucky this time around. Lightning No. 1 goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy boasts a rock-solid .919 save percentage, a 2.56 GAA and 19.1 goals saved above average. He’s also won 28 of 45 starts and checks out as an enormous upgrade over Elliott.

Here is our best Penguins vs. Lightning NHL pick (odds via FanDuel; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Norris Trophy odds.

Penguins vs. Lightning pick

Under 6.5 (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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Guess who else has been taking care of business in the crease?

Penguins top netminder Tristan Jarry enters with an 18-7-5 record, a .918 save percentage, a 2.73 GAA and an impressive 12.5 goals saved above average across just 31 starts.

After the two teams spun the red light 10 times in Sunday’s game, I’m expecting both the Pens and Bolts to pay particularly close attention to defensive detail and limit high-quality scoring chances Thursday.

Of course, it will also be tougher to score with both teams starting their best goaltender and not playing tired on the second legs of respective back-to-back sets.

I’m specifically eyeing Tampa leading the way in keeping this a low-scoring game. The Lightning have lost two straight with an uncharacteristic 11 goals against. 

Tampa Bay has surrendered the sixth fewest five-on-five tallies per 60 minutes across 28 games since the holiday break, so I’m expecting a return to form at Amalie Arena on Thursday. After all, the Bolts have also allowed the fifth-fewest goals per 60 on home ice this season.

Check out our Calder Trophy odds.

Penguins vs. Lightning best odds

FanDuel (+102)

DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars PointsBet
Under 6.5Under 6.5Under 6.5Under 6.5Under 6.5
+100+102 🔥+100+100+100

There isn’t a huge advantage in the available odds across our best sportsbooks. I’d play this Under to an even -110 vig and consider the FanDuel number a nice value. 

I graded this with three-star confidence instead of four because both teams feature the firepower to score in bunches – and showed it Sunday. 

Check out our latest Stanley Cup odds and Hart Trophy odds.

Penguins vs. Lightning odds

Check out our latest Stanley Cup odds and Hart Trophy odds.

Penguins vs. Lightning odds analysis

There’s been slight movement to the Penguins moneyline at a few sportsbooks, but they’re still a notable underdog. BetMGM has the best odds for Pittsburgh (+145). The best moneyline number for Tampa Bay is -160 through PointsBet.

Our matchup page has 71% of the moneyline action on the Pittsburgh side, and 64% of the betting support has been on the Over. As highlighted, FanDuel has the best price for the Under while the best number for the Over is -120 through DraftKings and BetMGM.

Spread bettors can find the best line for the Penguins +1.5 (-167) through Caesars, and DraftKings and PointsBet have the best odds available for the Lightning -1.5 at +145.

Penguins vs. Lightning game info

Date: Thursday, March 2, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN+, TVAS, BSSUN, ATTSN-PT
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL

Lightning-Penguins pick made 3/2/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Neil Parker
A lifelong Cowboys, Cubs, Maple Leafs and Gators supporter, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. His past stops include USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook and RotoWire among others. He's a graduate of St. Thomas University and Acadia University and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club.