NHL Futures: Updated Stanley Cup Odds at All-Star Break
As the NHL embarks on its All-Star Weekend in Las Vegas, the break in the schedule offers an opportunity to evaluate the teams best positioned to win the Stanley Cup this season. We take a look at the updated Stanley Cup odds for the top contenders.
While there is still a lot of the regular season left to play, a lot of the playoff spots seem to be spoken for. The Eastern Conference is virtually settled, unless the New York Islanders can go on a second-half run. There is a little more up for grabs in terms of the lower playoff spots in the Western Conference, but the rest of the regular season will involve a lot of jockeying for position by the teams that already appear set to reach the postseason and have a legitimate shot at the Stanley Cup.
One of the factors to consider when wagering on a team to win the Stanley Cup is the path that a team must travel to win that championship. Right now, three of the top six teams in the league, in terms of points percentage, are in the Atlantic Division. Two of them will meet in the first round of the playoffs. That's not going to be easy for any of them and the odds reflect the difference in likely playoff paths for Stanley Cup contenders.
Updated Stanley Cup Odds
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*The Colorado Avalanche's Stanley Cup odds are boosted to +600 at Barstool.
SEE ALSO: NHL Awards Picks
Favorites
Colorado Avalanche
The clear favorite at this juncture, the Avalanche have the league's best points percentage (.773), quality underlying numbers (54.2 Corsi For percentage, 53.4 expected goals for percentage), and they have done this with star center Nathan MacKinnon missing 13 of 44 games. MacKinnon recently underwent surgery for facial fractures, head coach Jared Bednar said this week. The Avalanche might want to shore up their goaltending or add some quality depth, but their high-end talent separates them from the pack. BetMGM has the Avs receiving the most wagers (23.3%) and the most money (29.1%) by a significant margin. The Avs' Stanley Cup Odds are at +450 at most books.
Tampa Bay Lightning
No one is forgetting the back-to-back champions. Even with Nikita Kucherov playing just 11 games, the Lightning have a .717 points percentage, and they have one of the most reliable goaltenders in the league: reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy. For a team that has won the last two Stanley Cups, the Lightning are still the team to beat and a team that has the belief of the marketplace, with 7.1% of tickets and 9.4% of the handle at BetMGM on Tampa Bay.
Florida Panthers
A juggernaut offensive squad, the Panthers have climbed to the top of the Atlantic Division, scoring a league-best 4.88 goals per 60 minutes in all situations since the December schedule pause. Not only do the Panthers have a .734 points percentage, their 56.5% Corsi and 55.2% of expected goals rank second and fourth, respectively. With Sergei Bobrovsky playing well in net, and those underlying numbers, the Panthers are legit contenders, even though they have not yet earned big acceptance in the market (6% of tickets, 5% of handle).
Vegas Golden Knights
While the Golden Knights do not have the record (.620 points percentage) of other top Cup contenders, there is the small matter of the team acquiring Jack Eichel from the Buffalo Sabres. Adding an elite scoring center to a roster that has been a consistent contender in every season of its existence could push the Golden Knights over the top. There may need to be some subtraction from the roster in order to fit Eichel under the salary cap but, as is, they have been a solid team with a quality goaltender, and they have the potential to be even better.
Carolina Hurricanes
Considering that they have the second-best record in the league (.762 points percentage), the Hurricanes might offer some Stanley Cup value because they may have an easier path to the Stanley Cup Final. That's not to suggest that the teams in the Metropolitan Division are not capable, but not quite as daunting as the teams at the top of the Atlantic Division. BetMGM has 5.2% of their Stanley Cup tickets on Carolina, with 4.5% of the Stanley Cup money on the Hurricanes.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Speaking of teams at the top of the Atlantic Division, the Maple Leafs are close behind the Panthers with a .726 points percentage. Despite their strong play, which includes controlling 54.1% of shot attempts and 55.6% of expected goals during 5-on-5 action, the Leafs do not have a lot of believers in the betting markets. You go more than 50 years without winning a Stanley Cup and it can breed skepticism.
Not only that, but having to get past Florida, Tampa Bay, and even Boston just to get out of their division, does present significant challenges. Only 3.7% of wagers are on the Maple Leafs to win the Cup and just 2.8% of the handle at BetMGM is on the Leafs.
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Value
New York Rangers
There are some reasons to be optimistic about the Rangers, most notably that goaltender Igor Shesterkin has probably been the league's best so far this season and left winger Chris Kreider is enjoying a breakout season. There is more money pouring in on the Rangers, with 4.8% of the tickets and 5.9% of the handle on the Blueshirts, but the Rangers have terrible underlying numbers, ranking 31st in score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts (44.8%) and 27th in expected goals (45.5%). The Blueshirts' Stanley Cup odds currently range from +1700 to +2000.
Minnesota Wild
The main reason to have some reluctance about the Wild might be that their path runs through Colorado, but the Wild have a .720 points percentage and underlying numbers (51.7 CF%, 52.9 xGF%) that are good enough. Their lineup has been boosted by the play of rookie winger Matt Boldy and there is still the possibility that center Marco Rossi could be part of the Wild's playoff push. For a team that can still find odds at +2000 in multiple spots, the Wild could offer some value, even though just 2.8% of tickets and 2.7% of the BetMGM Stanley Cup money is riding with the Wild.
Pittsburgh Penguins
This might seem like a last gasp type of effort from a Penguins team built around a core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang, but they have also been a competitive team despite having a lot of key players - including Crosby and Malkin - miss time this season. The underlying numbers (53.6 CF%, 54.5 xGF%) are strong enough that the Penguins have a shot as long as goaltender Tristan Jarry continues to play well. The Penguins are getting 5.2% of the wagers and 5.0% of the handle at BetMGM.
Longshot
Edmonton Oilers
It’s not as though the Oilers have done much to inspire confidence this season, and they need to make up some games on the teams ahead of them in the Pacific Division. But, their .583 points percentage has them within range and if they can make a tangible improvement to their goaltending, they just might be able to surprise in a Pacific Division that is not especially top heavy. Only 2.9% of the wagers and 2.5% of the money at BetMGM are with the Oilers but they offer a better payout at +4000.
Value Between Conference Winner, Cup Odds
There are some notable differences in value to be found between the Stanley Cup odds for teams as well as the odds for a team to win their respective conference.
In the Western Conference, it sure looks like the Golden Knights are the choice of the sharp money. While 9.6% of the tickets to win the Western Conference at BetMGM are on the Golden Knights, 19.3% of the money is on Vegas. The Pacific Division does seem like it presents an easier path for the Golden Knights.
In the Eastern Conference, the Panthers and Penguins are teams with more money coming in than the percentage of tickets. As noted above, the Panthers have become a high-scoring powerhouse, and while 12.6% of the wagers at BetMGM have them to win the Eastern Conference, 18.1% of the money is on Florida.
BetMGM has 9.0% of the Eastern Conference tickets and 11.0% of the handle on the Penguins.
It also seems notable that the Maple Leafs do not have a lot of belief to even come out of the Eastern Conference, with 3.4% of the tickets and 2.2% of the handle at BetMGM on Toronto.
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Stanley Cup odds made 2/4/2022 at 1:14 p.m. ET
