🏒 Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction & Player Props: Expect an Olympic Hangover
Last Updated: February 25, 2026 12:17 PM EST • 2 minute read X Social Google News Link
The Olympics are now (sadly) over and it's back to your regular-scheduled programming, so I've found three plays as part of my Leafs vs. Lightning prediction.
Tampa comes into this one as -225 favorites on the moneyline against their playoff rivals. However, don't expect William Nylander to be silent in what should be a low-scoring affair.
🏒 Leafs vs. Lightning predictions
See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds.
| Bet type | Bet | Best odds | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puck line | Leafs +1.5 | -135 via FanDuel | 1u to win 0.74u |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -128 via FanDuel | 2u to win 1.56u |
| Player prop: William Nylander | 3+ SOG | +150 via FanDuel | 1u to win 1.5u |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.8 units
💰 Leafs vs. Lightning best bet: Under 6.5 goals (-128)
Check out all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is currently playing some of the most clinical hockey of his career. He enters tonight's game with a 2.11 GAA and a sparkling .920 save percentage, and has been one of the hardest goalies to beat at even strength this year. I'm also expecting a post-Olympic hangover, with many of the marquee stars in this game - including Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Jake Guentzel - returning from the intensity of the Olympic tournament.
Score prediction: Leafs 2, Lightning 3
🔥 Best Leafs vs. Lightning prop bet: William Nylander to fire on net (+150)
William Nylander entered the Olympic break firing three pucks on net in three straight games, so I'm a tad confused as to why we're seeing this type of value for three shots on goal. With the heavy power-play minutes the Swede plays, I'm firing Nylander up with confidence as part of my Leafs vs. Lightning predictions.
Our Liam Fox targets a skater from this matchup as part of his NHL anytime goal scorer predictions today.
🚀 Best Leafs vs. Lightning SGP bets
💵 Leafs vs. Lightning same-game parlay
- Leafs +1.5 (-135) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Under 6.5 goals (-128) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- William Nylander 3+ SOG (+150) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +675 via FanDuel (.5u to win 3.37u)
📈 Leafs vs. Lightning betting trends
| Maple Leafs | Statistic | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 27-21-9 | W–L Record | 37-14-4 |
| 24-33 | Puck line Record | 27-28 |
| 33-24 | O/U Record | 26-28-1 |
| 4-5-1 | Last 10 Games | 8-1-1 |
🚑 Leafs vs. Lightning injuries
📺 How to watch Leafs vs. Lightning
- Date: Wednesday, Feb. 25
- Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, Fla.)
- TV: ESPN, SN
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Dustin Saracini X social