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Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho stars in our Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs picks.
Sebastian Aho #20 of the Carolina Hurricanes celebrates a goal against the Los Angeles Kings in the second period at Staples Center on Nov 20, 2021. Photo by Ronald Martinez / Getty Images via AFP.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will try to avoid their first three-game winless stretch since October when they host the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday. Here's sports betting analyst Scott Cullen's top NHL pick based on the best NHL odds.

Even though they are in second place in the entire league, the Hurricanes come into Toronto facing some adversity.

The Hurricanes are in first place in the Metropolitan Division with 96 points in 66 games. However, they have also lost star winger Andrei Svechnikov for the season due to a torn ACL, suffered March 11 against Vegas.

Carolina snapped a two-game losing streak with a 5-3 victory over Winnipeg on Tuesday.

Toronto remains in second place in the Atlantic Division with 89 points in 67 games, one point ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning, though the Maple Leafs have played two fewer games. Toronto lost 2-1 in a shootout against Colorado on Wednesday.

Here is our best Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs NHL pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs pick

60-minute tie (+350 via FanDuel)

By the latest consensus Stanley Cup odds, the Hurricanes and Maple Leafs are considered two of the top five teams contending for the championship.

The Hurricanes' case is complicated by Svechnikov's injury, but they're coming at this situation from a position of strength. This is because Carolina is the best shot suppressing team in the league, allowing 25.4 shots against per 60 minutes.

That leads to a 2.48 goals against average which ranks second. They may need to generate more offense, but the Hurricanes have a consistency that will not collapse in the absence of one player. 

Carolina's tendency to grind has also led them to frequently play more than 60 minutes. The Hurricanes have a 7-6 record in road games determined by overtime or shootout. That means Carolina has hit a 60-minute tie in 13 of 32 road games, 40.6% of the time.

Toronto has only played five games since the March 3 trade deadline, but the new-look Leafs have been mostly unimpressive, producing a 2-2-1 record while managing a miserable 43.5% of score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals during five-on-five play.

The Maple Leafs are 5-5 in home games decided after 60 minutes, which means that 10 of their 36 games (27.8%) at Scotiabank Arena have reached a 60-minute tie.  

Considering where they sit in the standings, both teams have incentive - if the game is close - to play for overtime to insure getting at least one point.

Check out our latest Norris Trophy odds.

Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs best odds

FanDuel (+350) 

60-minute tie60-minute tie60-minute tie60-minute tie60-minute tie

FanDuel is offering the best value for a 60-minute tie, at +350, but there is some variance among our best sportsbooks.

With a range in price between +310 and +330, the rest of the top sportsbooks are not especially competitive with FanDuel in this market. 

The implied probability from the longest odds, at FanDuel, is 22.2%, whereas the implied probability from the shortest odds, at BetMGM, is 24.4%, so there is value to be extracted by shopping around for the best price.

Check out our Rocket Richard Trophy odds and Hart Trophy odds.

Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs odds

Check out our Calder Trophy odds.

Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs odds analysis

FanDuel opened with the Maple Leafs favored at -130, compared to the Hurricanes at +108. 

Even though 68% of the consensus moneyline wagers have come in on the Maple Leafs, there has not been much line movement. The Maple Leafs are now -132, with the Hurricanes at +110.

The total opened at 6.5, with odds at -118 for the Under and -104 for the Over. There is two-way action on the total. With just 51% of consensus wagers on the Under, the odds have still shifted to -140 for the Under and +112 for the Over. 

Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs game info

  • Date: Friday, March 17, 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: NHL Network, TVAS, TSN4, BSSO
  • Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Hurricanes-Maple Leafs pick made 3/17/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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