🏒 Capitals vs. Penguins Prediction & Odds: NHL Picks Today (April 11)

The Pittsburgh Penguins have already punched a ticket to the playoffs, but what could be sweeter than putting another nail in the coffin of the rival Washington Capitals this afternoon when the two meet at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh? Puck drop is set for 3 p.m. ET (ABC), and the Penguins are lined as a short -125 betting favorite on their home ice. 

My Capitals vs. Penguins prediction breaks down exactly why I think this game will push Washington to the brink of elimination, while giving an exact score prediction, a play on the total, and my favorite player prop for the matinee.

❗️ Editors note

Since the publication of this article, the Pittsburgh Penguins have ruled out: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust, Ben Kindel, and Parker Wotherspoon.

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🏒 Capitals vs. Penguins picks & odds today: April 11

See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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💰 Capitals vs. Penguins prediction & best bet

Penguins moneyline (-125)

I get it, in the grand scheme of the season, this game means very little to Pittsburgh, but I won't be convinced that pushing its rival toward elimination isn't a big enough motivator to keep up the momentum.

Washington's defense has been in shambles since trading John Carlson. While the Caps blanked the hapless Maple Leafs last time out, they've allowed four or more goals in five of their last seven games. That won't cut it against a Pens squad that leads the league in goals scored over its last 20 games with 60.

For me, this is good to -140.

Score prediction: Penguins 5, Capitals 2

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🔥 Best Capitals vs. Penguins player prop bet

Bryan Rust (-150)

Rust has been a consistent producer in this Penguins offense for years now, finishing with 31 and 28 goals (and 65 and 56 points) the last two seasons, and sitting on a 29-36-65 line this season.

Playing top minutes with Sidney Crosby will boost anyone's numbers, and despite having just nine fewer points than Crosby on the season, he's paying out so much better. Pittsburgh's captain's price for a single point is -280, so this price for Rust is excellent.

Rust leads the team in high-danger scoring chances per 60, and with Washington's defensive struggles, he should have plenty of chances. With an 18.5% finishing rate on high-danger chances, you might want to consider a partial-unit play on his +225 anytime goal scorer odds, but this is the safer play.

DraftKings' -150 is a great price, this is a lay off at -175.

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📊 Live Capitals vs. Penguins odds

The odds actually opened a little more tilted toward the Pens, but the market has pulled back a bit. That's likely due to sentiment about motivation: Pittsburgh is clinched, Washington can't lose. But the public isn't necessarily buying that (and neither am I). 

Seventy-one percent of the tickets are on the Pens at home, and 64% of the tickets are on the Over. It feels that the history of this rivalry is well entrenched in fans' and bettors' minds.

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🚀 Capitals vs. Penguins same-game parlay

These picks play out nicely, and should line up for a 3-0 day. If Pittsburgh indeed is "up" for the game, Washington's leaky defense and push to stay in the season should lead to a high-scoring tilt. And if we get a high-scoring tilt that Pittsburgh wins, that top line and top power play should come through. 

However, as always with parlays, no need to get carried away - this should just be a boost to the day. Despite having the standalone best (or tied-for-the-best) pricing on all three legs, DraftKings lags behind bet365 when you pair them together in an SGP. DK will pay +298, but bet365 is offering a +310 line despite Rust's player prop paying -170 there.

💵 Capitals vs. Penguins SGP picks

• Penguins moneyline (-125)
• Over 6.5 (-110)
• Rust to record 1+ points (-170)

Best odds: +310 via bet365 (0.25u -> 0.78u)

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💵 My betting record for NHL picks

All NHL picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 3

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💡 How I'm betting Capitals vs. Penguins

Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.

This seems like a great place to attack the Penguins despite the clinched vs. fighting-for-their-life angle. But rivalries don't die that easily, that's why I'm willing to go a full unit on the moneyline and on Rust putting up a point. 

I'm less bullish on the total, but only because the line is just so high - 6.5s always scare me a bit. I think it can get there, but I'm only willing to dedicate a half a unit on that play.

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📈 Capitals vs. Penguins betting trends

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🚑 Capitals vs. Penguins injuries

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📺 How to watch Capitals vs. Penguins

• Date: Saturday, April 11
• Puck drop: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: PPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh)
• TV: ABC