Avalanche vs. Blues Game 6 NHL Picks: St. Louis Tries to Keep Playoff Hopes Alive at Home
The lone matchup on Friday night is between the Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues, with the former looking to close out the series on the road. Check out our Avalanche-Blues picks.
The Avalanche were up 3-0 in Game 5 before the entire team - barring Nathan MacKinnon - choked and Darcy Kuemper let in a muffin from the slot in overtime to complete the collapse.
We're breaking down the betting angles for Game 6 to see if the Avalanche can finally get past the second round.
Here are my picks and predictions for Friday’s NHL matchup between the Avalanche and Blues (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Avalanche vs. Blues Game Info
Date: Friday, May 27, 8:00 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Enterprise, St. Louis, MO
Avalanche vs. Blues Odds Analysis
This game opened with Colorado as a -170 favorite and the total at 6.5.
Since opening, the Avalanche have taken money and moved the line five cents to -175, but the total remains at 6.5 slightly juiced at -115.
I expect the Avalanche to get more support throughout the day and bump the line up even further, though the total will remain at 6.5 within the range it’s in now.
Avalanche vs. Blues Picks
Blues (+150 via DraftKings) ????Under 6.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ????David Perron to score (+175 via FanDuel) ????
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Avalanche vs. Blues Predictions
Blues (+150)
The Avalanche have dominated this series at five-on-five to the tune of a 60.37 Corsi for percentage and 10.98-8.04 expected goals-for percentage. It’s been a relative masterclass, but after choking away a 3-0 lead at home last, they’re showing they’re not invincible.
After finding themselves in an early deficit, the Blues showed a tremendous amount of resolve and desperation. Though the game metrics won’t show it, St. Louis dominated the second half of Game 5.
The Blues have veteran leadership and poise, and they should take advantage of an Avalanche team that handles adversity like one of the Real Housewives of Denver.
Back the Blues at home in a desperation spot against a vulnerable Avalanche team that can’t seem to escape the second round in recent years.
Under 6.5 (-105)
Though both goaltenders have been shaky this postseason, I’m betting on their regular-season form to be on display in a potential elimination game.
Avalanche netminder Kuemper owns a minus-2.0 goals-saved above average in the playoffs, while the Blues’ Ville Husso owns a minus-5.7 GSAA. However, both goalies were stellar throughout the regular season, with Kuemper registering a plus-25.1 GSAA and Husso clocking in with a plus-15.0 GSAA.
Both teams are explosive offensively, but each should play a responsible tight-checking game due to the implications at hand. Back both goaltenders to also turn in stellar performances.
Perron to score (+175)
Perron ranks second amongst postseason performers with nine goals in eleven games. He’s lethal on the power play and sits ninth in the postseason with a 5.15 individual expected goals.
The Blues are executing on the power play this postseason at a 32.4% clip, and the Avalanche have the worst penalty kill of the remaining teams.
If the Blues get on the board tonight, Perron should be involved.
Where to Bet on Avalanche-Blues Picks
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Avalanche-Blues picks made on 5/27/2022 at 11:11 a.m. ET.
