Avalanche vs. Blues Game 4 NHL Picks: Can St. Louis Recover Without Binnington?
The St. Louis Blues lost the game and their starting goalie in Game 3. Can they rebound to even up the series at home on Monday against the Colorado Avalanche? We break it down with our Avalanche-Blues picks.
The Blues gave the Avalanche a scare when the series was in Denver. Colorado won Game 1 3-2 in overtime and then lost Game 2 at home 4-1. Jordan Binnington was outstanding in both games, but the St. Louis goalie has been ruled out for the series with a lower-body injury.
St. Louis will now turn to Ville Husso in goal. He started the playoffs with a 37-save shutout but has allowed four or more goals in all three appearances since. The Avalanche tagged him for four goals on 23 shots in Game 3 on Saturday.
Colorado is now an even bigger favorite in the series with the absence of Binnington. St. Louis is in a must-win situation on Monday.
Here are my Avalanche vs. Blues picks and predictions for Monday’s NHL matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Avalanche vs. Blues Game Info
Date/Time: Monday, May 23, 9:30 p.m. ETTV: TNT, CBC, TVAS, SportsnetLocation: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
Avalanche vs. Blues Odds Analysis
The Avalanche are around -160 favorites at most books, including DraftKings and BetMGM. The Blues are home underdogs at +140 on DraftKings as well. The public loves the Avalanche with 78% of the cash on them. Colorado is -1.5 (+150) on the puck line after opening at +135. The Blues are +1.5 (-170), similar to their -162 opening.
The total opened at 6.5 goals and hasn’t budged. You can get Over 6.5 at -114 at FanDuel and Under 6.5 at -105 at DraftKings. 79% of the cash and 62% of the tickets are on the Over.
Avalanche vs. Blues Picks
Avalanche -1.5 (+155 via DraftKings) ???Over 6.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ???Artturi Lehkonen to score (+250 via FanDuel) ???
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Avalanche vs. Blues Predictions
Avalanche -1.5 (+155)
I mentioned the impact of Binnington’s injury above and that’s leading me to take the Avalanche in Game 4. I could see the Blues putting up a good home effort as an experienced playoff team, so I’m not as comfortable laying the juice. On the other hand, the Avalanche are on the verge of a breakout and could find it with Husso in net.
Husso has allowed 13 goals on 82 shots for a .841 save percentage (SV%) in his last three games, with a goals against average (GAA) of 4.55. The Avs are averaging a playoff-high 4.29 goals per game after finishing the season with 308 goals (3.76 per), good for fourth in the league.
On top of Husso’s downgrade in stopping shots, he’s also a worse skater and puck handler. The Avalanche will have a better chance of getting the puck in deep and getting in on the forecheck.
Colorado started to find its usual high-paced effort in the latter portions of Game 3. If the Avs can keep that up, they should be able to win by at least two goals.
Over 6.5 (-114)
The Blues were actually one goal better in goals for in the regular season than the Avalance with 309. St. Louis has also scored 3.33 goals per game in the playoffs.
Husso is not on the same level as Binnington, especially in these playoffs, and the Avalanche can open the floodgates at any moment. They’ve scored five or more goals in four of seven playoff games, including the 5-2 win in Game 3.
I could see another 5-2 or 5-3 type of game for an easy Over in Game 4.
Lehkonen to score (+250)
Lehkonen was one of the Avalanche’s best players in Game 3. At 5-on-5 per NaturalStatTrick, he led the team in shot attempts (7), shots (4), scoring chances (5), and wired a wrister for a goal off the rush. With the Blues focusing on Nathan MacKinnon and the Avs’ top line, the second line that Lehkonen is on alongside Gabriel Landeskog and Nazem Kadri is going to have plenty of chances.
The trade deadline addition finished the regular season with goals in five of nine games and has scored in three of seven playoff games, including two (one ENG) in Game 3. I’ll take the +250 odds on him to keep that up.
Where to Bet on Avalanche-Blues Picks
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Avalanche-Blues picks made on 5/22/2022 at 9:12 p.m. ET.
