NHL Atlantic Division Odds, Picks, Predictions 2022-23: Maple Leafs Enter as Team to Beat

Two teams that are coming off strong 2021-2022 regular seasons but have not been able to turn regular season success into playoff results remain favorites to win the Atlantic Division. Here are our top picks for the Atlantic Division in 2022-23.

There was a significant gap between the playoff teams and others in the Atlantic Division last season. As such, while the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, and Ottawa Senators all appear to have improved over the offseason, last season's top teams are still heavy favorites.

The top four teams in the Atlantic Division — the Boston Bruins, Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Tampa Bay Lightning — all finished within the top eight in the league when it came to five-on-five score-and-venue adjusted expected goals percentage last season.

The other four teams in the Atlantic? Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, and the Montreal Canadiens ranked between 25 and 31. So even if those teams have improved, they need massive improvement at a core level if they are going to have the kind of sustainable performance that is necessary to win the Atlantic Division.

Here are our top picks, and predictions for Atlantic Division Futures Odds (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, PointsBet, and Barstool Sportsbook).

Top Atlantic Division Odds and Picks

Maple Leafs

After finishing with a franchise-best 115 points and .701 points percentage last season, the Maple Leafs are again viable contenders to win the Atlantic, even though they replaced their goaltending tandem with a pair of question marks in Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov. The problem with the Leafs is that they are such a public team that they hardly ever offer value in the marketplace. Heading into the season, there is not much appeal for the Leafs at most sportsbooks; however, the +230 odds at Caesars are more tempting than other books.

Panthers

The Panthers had the best regular season in franchise history in 2021-2022. They finished with the top record in the league, with 122 points and a .744 points percentage. Then they replaced head coach Andrew Brunette with Paul Maurice, traded leading scorer Jonathan Huberdeau and 23-minute per game defenseman MacKenzie Weegar to the Calgary Flames for star winger Matthew Tkachuk. I expect the Panthers to be a strong team again, and probably offer better relative value than the Maple Leafs, but there is likely regression coming and it will be almost impossible to duplicate their 2021-2022 results.

Lightning

The Lightning reached the Stanley Cup Final in each of the past three seasons. They won in 2020 and 2021 before losing in the Final to Colorado last season, and the Lightning played to a .696 points percentage over the past five seasons. They are perennial contenders, but considering their recent postseason track record, the Lightning are also not desperate to achieve regular season results. While they do offer a little more value than the Maple Leafs or Panthers, the Lightning might not be as focused on regular-season achievement. They seem to have learned how to pace their performance and do not appear as committed to winning the division. That needs to be taken into account entering the season.  

Bruins

After luring centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci back into the fold for another season, the Bruins should eventually be competitive once again. However, they are also facing the likelihood of starting the season without star winger Brad Marchand, top defenseman Charlie McAvoy and defenseman Matt Grzelcyk. Those key pieces are recovering from offseason surgeries and could miss a few months. The Bruins have played to a .671 points percentage over the past five seasons and will be dangerous enough when healthy, but they are also likely to tread water for the first few months. That should prevent them from winning the division but could also lead to more tempting odds once the season is underway.

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Senators

Few teams made splashes as big as the Senators in the offseason. Ottawa traded for 41-goal scorer Alex DeBrincat and goaltender Cam Talbot in addition to signing Claude Giroux as a free agent. The hope is that it will be enough for the Senators to contend for a playoff spot, which would already be a huge jump from a 73-point season; however, there is another step (or two) in order to win the Atlantic Division. It's a long shot but at +2800 on DraftKings and PointsBet, it is worth tracking Ottawa’s early performance to see if the division could realistically be in play.

Red Wings

Another Atlantic Division team hoping for a step toward respectability, the Red Wings had 74 points last season and signed goaltender Ville Husso, defensemen Ben Chiarot and Olli Maatta, plus forwards David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Dominik Kubalik. Like the Senators, the Red Wings are likely hoping this can get them into meaningful games late in the season, but it is still asking a lot to go from 74 points to winning the division.

Make sure to keep an eye on our Live Odds page throughout the week to get the best lines possible and connect with others in the SBR community on our popular sports betting forum.

Sabres

There were some signs of progress for the Sabres last season. They will now have 2021 No. 1 draft pick Owen Power in the lineup for a full season but even if the Sabres are a young team starting their ascent, they also had 75 points last season and have not finished with a winning record since the 2011-2012 campaign. Barstool has the Sabres priced at +10000 to win the division, the longest odds among top sportsbooks, and that seems about right.

Canadiens

The Canadiens finished with the worst record in the league last season. Though they showed some improvement after Martin St. Louis took over as head coach and they have quite a bit of forward depth, the defense is mostly unproven. Additionally, the goaltending, without Carey Price, is questionable at best. With a healthy Price, the Canadiens might have been worth a long shot sprinkle, but it is hard to imagine Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault giving them the goaltending they need to reach the playoffs let alone win the division.

Where to Bet on NHL Atlantic Division Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Atlantic Division Picks made 9/26/2022 at 2:20 p.m. ET.