Anaheim Ducks Feeling Heat in Pacific Playoff Race

Despite sitting second in the NHL's Pacific Division with 45 points through 39 games, the Anaheim Ducks could actually be hard-pressed to make the playoffs. We break it all down below and tell you how to take advantage of it in the Stanley Cup futures market.

The Ducks didn't have high expectations entering the season, but a surprisingly strong start vaulted them into the playoff picture. Now, with one regulation win in its past eight games, Anaheim's spot in the postseason is much more vulnerable.

The prices on FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook reflect as much, as the Ducks are +126 and +155, respectively, to make the playoffs and -164 and -180, respectively, to miss the postseason. There are a few reasons for this. Let's explore those.

Ducks Lead League in Games Played

Perhaps the most obvious issue is the Ducks have played a lot of contests relative to their competition. Anaheim is tied with the Vegas Golden Knights for the league lead with 39 games played. There are teams in the Western Conference playoff hunt, such as the Dallas Stars, that have played as few as 32 games. Therefore, points percentage becomes a more telling measure.

Anaheim's 19-13-7 record gives it a .577 points percentage, which ranks 15th. That's entirely respectable, but it's not exactly locking down a playoff spot. The Ducks' underlying numbers aren't terribly encouraging, either. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Ducks rank 20th in score-and-venue-adjusted Corsi (49.0 CF%) and 21st in score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals percentage (48.1 xGF%).

It's not impossible to be a playoff team with those underlying numbers, but it makes the task more challenging. The New York Rangers are the only other team in a playoff position with a worse Corsi, so there's reason for skepticism.

In addition to playing more games overall, the Ducks have also played 22 home games, with 17 on the road. That imbalance may not cause a massive swing on its own, but on top of the rest of the statistical pile, it doesn't help Anaheim's case.

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Roster Questions With Trade Deadline Approaching

Strong goaltending has been a foundation of Anaheim's success this season, as John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz have led the Ducks to an all-situations save percentage of .916, which ranks seventh in the league.

The Ducks' roster features ample young talent, highlighted by Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale, Sonny Milano, Isac Lundestrom, Maxime Comtois, and Troy Terry. Anaheim has surprisingly experienced this level of relative success sooner than expected, and that could alter the team's plans with the trade deadline looming.

It appeared before the season that Anaheim's pending unrestricted free agents would be prime trade candidates with the team not expected to compete for a playoff spot. That group includes veteran defensemen Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson and winger Rickard Rakell. However, it's unlikely the Ducks can trade them while in the playoff hunt.

The question now is if the Ducks front office will look at this team and think it should add players before the trade deadline. If so, Anaheim could do more damage to its long-term hopes than this season is really worth.

Challengers Closing In

The biggest issue facing the Ducks is that there are a bunch of Western Conference teams in hot pursuit, and even more could pose a potential problem for Anaheim with wild-card divisional crossovers for the last two playoff spots in the conference.

The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars are teams behind the Ducks in the standings that have shorter odds to reach the playoffs, while the Los Angeles Kings, Winnipeg Jets, San Jose Sharks, and Vancouver Canucks are all within striking distance.

Though all of these teams come with flaws, it takes only a couple of them reeling in the Ducks to cause Anaheim to miss the postseason. Anaheim's price to miss the playoffs may not be a great value at this point, but it's possible it doesn't get any better.

Western Conference Playoff Odds

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