Men's Olympic Hockey X-Factors: One Player From Each Team Who Could Deliver Gold For His Country

For the first time since 2014, the best-on-best format returns to the 2026 Winter Olympics. As the NHL’s elite make their way to Milano Cortina, the rosters are terrifyingly deep. While names like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander will dominate the headlines, Olympic history is usually written by men's Olympic hockey X-Factors - the support players who can tilt the ice in a hurry on their way to gold.

Here's one player from each gold-medal favorite who holds the keys to the top of the podium.

❌ Men's Olympic hockey X-Factors

Here's one X-factor from each gold-medal favorite. Which player will help his country win the whole thing?

🍁 Canada (🥇+105): Jordan Binnington / Canadian goaltending 

This applies for every goaltender on the Canadian roster, but if Binnington can reach into his bag and pull out the talent he displayed in the 4-Nations final, Canada has an incredible chance to win gold. Yes, we know of his struggles with the St. Louis Blues this season - he's rocking a .864 save percentage and a 3.65 goals - however, the Olympics are a whole different animal, and Binnington shines when the lights are the brightest. 

During the 4-Nations tournament, Binnington turned aside eight shots that carried a projected goal rate of 15% or higher, with six of those saves coming in the third period or overtime. On lower-danger looks, he was flawless, stopping all 22 long-distance shots he faced over the course of the tourney. He's a big-time goalie when it matters most, and if he can once again play well in between the pipes, expect Canada to win gold - he's the perfect X-Factor.

Betting tip: Canada's odds to win gold will only get shorter, so you'll need to get this wager in prior to Game 1 against Czechia on Thursday. I have several tournament parlays that have Canada taking gold in the Olympics.

🦅 USA (🥇 +190): Brady Tkachuk 

Brady Tkachuk is the epitome of a "I hate playing against him, but would love him on our team" guy. He's the American Brad Marchand, if you will. He gets under your skin, will grind you down, and when all is said and done, might have a goal or two. He's the ultimate X-Factor if the Americans want to win gold.

Tkachuk is already battle-tested at the international level after the 4-Nations tournament: he skated in four games, scoring three goals, including one in the championship game. He'll be playing on the second line in the Olympics, alongside his brother and Jack Eichel, and could very well provide the spark team USA needs to win the whole thing.

Betting tip: At +190, wagering on Team USA to win the gold is likely the best play on the board. If you want a bigger return and believe team Canada will win gold, you can find +260 for the Americans to win silver at FanDuel.

🫎 Sweden (🥇 +550): Erik Karlsson

Can Karlsson turn back the clock in the Olympics and help Sweden win gold? He's enjoyed a nice bounce-back season in Pittsburgh, registering 35 points in 51 games with a plus-6 rating, and will be a part of a stacked defense for his country. He won't get the shine of a Rasmus Dahlin or Victor Hedman, but the time he's out on the ice might just be the difference in a do-or-die game against Canada or the USA.

Karlsson is a complete workhorse and is still capable of playing heavy minutes in the Olympics - he's averaging nearly 24 minutes per game in Pittsburgh this season, and will be anchoring his country's second power-play unit.

I'm sure it helps he's already building on his continued chemistry with Hedman, too ... 

Betting tip: Sweden doesn't get the same amount of love as Canada or the United States, but they are more than capable of winning this tournament with that roster. Play them at a .5u at +550 to win the whole thing, and enjoy a potential long shot gift.

❄️ Finland (🥇 +1300): Roope Hintz

If Finland is going to have any kind of shot at winning the gold medal, they're going to need secondary scoring. The Fins will be without its top player, Aleksander Barkov, widely regarded as the NHL's best two-way center. However, Roope Hintz is a strong replacement option. The Dallas Stars center ranks fourth among all forwards in Evolving-Hockey’s even-strength defensive metric this season and has chipped in 44 points through 52 games.

Yes, Mikko Rantanen will carry the bulk of the load, but the Fins will need Hintz, Sebastian Aho, and Mikael Granlund to pick up the slack. With Hintz getting most of the top line reps alongside Rantanen, he'll have to be our X-Factor. If that top line can do damage alongside their top-heavy power-play unit, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. It might not be gold (although they did capture the gold in 2022 without NHL players there), but if the Fins can stay tight defensively and make the most of their opportunities 80 feet down the ice, they do have the talent to find a medal in Italy.

Betting tip: Finland's most realistic shot is likely bronze. At +450 to finish third, you're seeing some incredible value in a tilt that will likely come against Sweden. Taking Finland to win a medal at +155 would be the more conservative approach.