Will Aaron Rodgers Retire Before 2026 Season? Latest Odds at Prediction Markets for Steelers QB

Will Aaron Rodgers retire if the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Houston Texans tonight? We're breaking down the latest odds at prediction markets for the Steelers QB, who has strongly hinted at retirement throughout this season but is trending toward playing next year according to the latest prediction market chances.

📊 Will Aaron Rodgers retire before the 2026-27 season?

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Ahead of kickoff tonight for the final game of NFL Wild Card Weekend, it's a virtual coin flip whether Rodgers will retire or play next season. The latest prediction market odds show a "50% chance" of Rodgers retiring, though with "no" priced a few cents more than "yes" on retirement, the real odds are more like 51/49 that Rodgers plays next year.

Either way, the market is trending toward a Rodgers return after looking like a foregone conclusion he'd retire just a few months ago. The Steelers QB signed a 1-year deal in June and said a month later he was "pretty sure" that it would be his final season, and his retirement odds peaked at 90% ahead of his Week 1 in Pittsburgh.

But the market has trended toward a return as Rodgers led the Steelers to their first AFC North division title in five years and a third straight 10-7 season and postseason berth. After sitting at 78% in early December, it's tumbled to as low as a 39% chance of retirement before sitting right at 50% with more than $16,000 in volume.

🔮 Will Aaron Rodgers play next year? Prediction & analysis

The tea leaves are all pointing toward a return for the 42-year-old quarterback, who has shown some life down the stretch in leading Pittsburgh back to the postseason.

Ian Rapoport reported earlier this week that Rodgers is open to returning next year, and he followed that up with a report over the weekend that the Steelers are "more than open" to having him return for another season in the Steel City.

With the way Rodgers closed the season - and the Steelers' lack of a viable replacement in the building - it would make a ton of sense for both parties to extend their union one more year while Pittsburgh makes a concerted effort to sign or draft find his successor.

The only exception is if Rodgers somehow leads this team to a Super Bowl victory this year and rides off into the sunset, which feels like too poetic of a send-off for the future Hall of Fame quarterback to turn down. I'd rather wager on that alone than price that into this market, though. Barring a miracle run, I'd expect Rodgers back in 2026.

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers will play next year (49%)

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📺 How to watch Texans vs. Steelers: NFL Wild Card Weekend

• Date: Monday, Jan. 12
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
• TV: ESPN