Will Aaron Rodgers Retire Before 2026 Season? Prediction Markets & Odds for Steelers QB

Have we seen the last of Aaron Rodgers as an NFL starter? Even before his Pittsburgh Steelers were eliminated at the hands of the Houston Texans last night, questions had begun to circulate about the future of the long-in-the-tooth quarterback. Now the big question that everyone is asking: Will Aaron Rodgers retire before the 2026 NFL season?

Knowing Rodgers as we all do, we can probably safely guess that the answer to that question will stretch out well into the offseason, leaving us plenty of time to stay on top of prediction markets.

📊 Will Aaron Rodgers retire before the 2026-27 season?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

Entering the Steelers' playoff game on Monday, Rodgers' odds of retiring were almost perfectly 50/50 ahead of what proved to be the final game of the season for Pittsburgh. Could it have been the final game of his storied NFL career, too?

The latest prediction market odds think so, with Kalshi showing a 67.3% chance that Rodgers retires. It costs 71 cents to buy shares in "yes" for him to retire before next season, while you could turn 33 cents into a dollar if you buy stake in "no" and expect him to play next year for the Steelers or any other team.

The market was trending toward a Rodgers return after looking like a foregone conclusion he'd retire just a few months ago. The Steelers QB signed a 1-year deal in June and said a month later he was "pretty sure" that it would be his final season, and his retirement odds peaked at 90% ahead of his Week 1 in Pittsburgh.

Then Rodgers led the Steelers to their first AFC North division title in five years and a third straight 10-7 season and postseason berth. After sitting at 78% in early December, his retirement odds tumbled to as low as a 39% chance of retirement before sitting right at 50% with more than $16,000 in volume before kickoff.

We've since seen roughly $6,000 in shares purchased since kickoff, driving the market sharply in favor of Rodgers' retirement. There has also been strong interest in whether Mike Tomlin will be fired after yet another season without a playoff win for the Steelers coach.

🔮 Will Aaron Rodgers play next year? Prediction & analysis

While the market is buying the retirement rumors for Rodgers, recent reports point toward a return for the 42-year-old quarterback, who has shown some life down the stretch in leading Pittsburgh back to the postseason.

Ian Rapoport reported earlier this week that Rodgers is open to returning next year, and he followed that up with a report over the weekend that the Steelers are "more than open" to having him return for another season in the Steel City.

With the way Rodgers closed the season - and the Steelers' lack of a viable replacement in the building - it would make a ton of sense for both parties to extend their union one more year while Pittsburgh makes a concerted effort to sign or draft find his successor.

If Rodgers somehow led this team to a Super Bowl victory this year to ride off into the sunset, that felt like too poetic of a send-off for the future Hall of Fame quarterback to turn down. But after throwing a pick-six in the final seconds of a miserable effort for the Steelers' offense, I'd be surprised if he doesn't want one final go to write a different ending.

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers will play next year (22.5%)