Week 4 NFL Touchdown Prop Picks: Can Barkley Keep Rolling Against Bears?
New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley has thrown it back to start the season, and he lands in a ripe matchup to show off against the Chicago Bears. Here are our Week 4 NFL touchdown prop picks.
Touchdown props are popular markets for bettors, and this is a look at three players with plus-matchups who present value to find the end zone this week.
While it’s always important to seek out the best number, there are often wide disparities in odds, so it can be even more advantageous when betting on touchdown props.
Here are our Week 4 NFL touchdown prop picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Rashaad Penny, Seahawks (+165 via PointsBet) ★★★
- Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos (+475 via PointBet) ★
Penny anytime TD scorer (+165)
Rashaad Penny has been largely held in check through the first three games of the season, but he handled all three of Seattle’s red-zone carries against the Atlanta Falcons last week, and the favorable matchup against the Detroit Lions sets him up to score his first touchdown of the year Sunday.
The Lions have surrendered the highest rushing success rate, rank seventh-worst in rush defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and have the third-lowest run defense grade, per Pro Football Focus.
Additionally, Detroit has allowed a rushing touchdown in all three games this season, including multiple scores to the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings.
Don’t forget, Penny scored in four of the final five games last year while rushing for 7.3 yards per carry. It’s also worthing noting Penny is as low as +116 to find the end zone at Caesars Sportsbook.
Okwuegbunam anytime TD scorer (+475)
The Las Vegas Raiders have been exposed by tight ends this season with the Los Angeles Chargers' Gerald Everett and Tennessee Titans' Geoff Swaim both scoring on them in their respective games. The Arizona Cardinals' Zach Ertz also caught eight of 11 targets for 75 yards in Week 2.
Additionally, this appears to be a personnel issue for the Raiders.
They surrendered 11 touchdowns to the position last year and Las Vegas linebackers and safeties with at least three pass attempts against them this year have surrendered a healthy 85.3 completion percentage for 332 yards and three touchdowns.
Las Vegas sports the 25th-ranked coverage grade through three weeks, per Pro Football Focus.
PointsBet has a fair price to take a flier on Albert Okwuegbunam to find the end zone, especially considering DraftKings is hanging a short +275.
Two or More Touchdowns Picks
- Saquon Barkley, Giants (+450 via FanDuel) ★★
Barkley Two or More Touchdowns (+420)
The New York Giants are down their top three wide receivers for their Week 4 matchup against the Chicago Bears, so expect the offense to be even more reliant on Barkley on Sunday.
With a couple of key Chicago defensive starters nursing injuries, it should be an even cushier matchup, too.
The Bears have allowed the fourth-highest rushing success rate this season and have allowed a rushing touchdown in each of the first three weeks. Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones also scored through the air.
Chicago is sporting the ninth-lowest run defense grade, per PFF, and 11th-worst run defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, might not truly represent how bad this rush defense is, either. The Bears played in a monsoon in Week 1 and faced the inept Houston Texans' attack last week.
Obviously, Barkley’s anytime touchdown prop is also in play, and he’s trading at -150 at FanDuel.
Where to Bet on NFL Touchdown Prop Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM
SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Week 3 NFL touchdown prop picks made 9/30/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET
