Vikings vs. Browns Prediction: NFL Week 5 Odds, Expert Picks & Best Bets
The Cleveland Browns have made a quarterback change ahead of Sunday’s London game against the Minnesota Vikings, and I analyze why it is still smart to back the underdogs with Dillon Gabriel under center in my Vikings vs. Browns prediction.
Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite at the majority of sportsbooks while playing in its second consecutive international game. Kickoff for this NFL London Games matchup is set for 9:30 a.m. ET from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (NFL Network).
Although I am no longer making my best bet for this game a Browns moneyline wager like I did with my NFL upset picks, the point spread being north of a field goal after the quarterback change still works well as one of my best NFL picks.
I am also fading Vikings quarterback Carson Wentz’s arm as part of my NFL predictions for Week 5.
🏈 Vikings vs. Browns predictions
NFL expert picks for Week 5; odds subject to change.
- Game pick: Browns +4.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 36.5 (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
- Player prop bet: Carson Wentz Under 210.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Vikings vs. Browns expert pick
Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.
🐶 Browns +4.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐
Minnesota has a distinct advantage of having played overseas in Dublin just last week, so it is more acclimated to the time change than Cleveland is after arriving earlier in the week. But the Browns’ switch at quarterback from Joe Flacco to Dillon Gabriel came at the perfect time and should pay dividends immediately.
Not only did Flacco hurt the team with six interceptions through four games, but his lack of mobility behind an injury-ravaged offensive line made it difficult to run Kevin Stefanski’s heavy play-action system.
But Cleveland is not the only team with offensive line issues, as the Vikings ended last week’s game with three backups in the trenches. Left guard Donovan Jackson has already been ruled out, but if either right tackle Brian O’Neill (knee) or center Ryan Kelly (concussion) can't play, that is asking for trouble against Cleveland’s elite pass rush.
Stefanski’s teams are 10-3-1 ATS since 2022 in games after allowing 30 or more points the previous week. That is the best ATS record of any head coach in the league in that span.
With this game having the lowest O/U of the week (as low as 35.5), that has me excited to back the underdogs in a game that more suits their style as opposed to the shootouts they got caught up in against the Ravens and Lions.
Browns backers will love the value to be had at DraftKings, as its point spread is a full point higher than the rest of the best sports betting sites, while also paying less than the standard -110 juice. The -105 odds carry a 51.22% implied probability and would net $9.52 in profits on a $10 wager if Cleveland covers.
💰 Best Vikings vs. Browns player prop bet
Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Carson Wentz Under 210.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Between the injured J.J. McCarthy and current starter Carson Wentz, Minnesota has the third-lowest Total QBR among its quarterbacks.
The immobile Wentz was sacked six times last week, bringing the Vikings’ NFL-worst total to 18 sacks allowed. It would behoove Minnesota to not air it out often against a ferocious Browns front, especially when backed up by a secondary that allows the fourth-fewest passing yards per game.
Do not be swayed by Wentz’s gaudy 46 pass attempts in Week 4, as 26 of those came after halftime when Minnesota was playing catch-up. The Vikings threw the ball on three-quarters of their plays last week but are only around 56% on designed pass plays for the season.
Cleveland ranks first in total defense allowing 222.5 total yards per game, making this O/U at 53.49% implied odds a head-scratching number that I am backing with five stars of confidence as my best Vikings vs. Browns player prop bet.
Under backers will find optimum value at BetMGM despite paying up slightly at -115, as Wentz’s O/U is eight yards lower at 202.5 at the low end of the market. If Wentz throws for 210 or fewer yards, my $10 wager would net $8.70 in profits.
📊 Vikings vs. Browns odds
Latest NFL odds updated live in real time.
📺 How to watch Vikings vs. Browns: NFL Week 5
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 5
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
- Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)
- TV: NFL Network
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