NFL Upset Picks Week 16: Can the Seahawks Soar Again?

There were six outright wins by underdogs in the NFL last week. After hitting on two of them for a 1.95 unit profit, I am back to build off that momentum with three more NFL upset picks for Week 16. 

My NFL Week 16 predictions include my favorite upset pick, best value pick, and top long-shot underdog.

🏈 NFL Week 16 upset rankings

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 16

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Seahawks over Rams (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Rams are an explosive team, coming off scoring 40-plus points and totaling 500 or more yards in consecutive games for the first time since 2000. But their explosiveness just took a massive hit with Davante Adams’ hamstring injury, as the Seahawks likely won't have to deal with the NFL’s leading wide receiver in touchdowns on a short week.

Given Adams’ injury, Seattle may have kicked off as a favorite if not for winning ugly last week. The Seahawks won their fourth game in franchise history without scoring an offensive touchdown. 

But Los Angeles only beat Seattle by two points at home in Week 11 with a healthy Adams, meaning the Seahawks are close to ending Matthew Stafford’s 6-0 run against them since joining the Rams.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering better than -106.

Patriots over Ravens (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

My best value pick backs the 11-win Patriots over the seven-win Ravens.

New England missed a golden opportunity to clinch the AFC East last week after it raced out to a 21-0 lead over Buffalo. But this is still a Patriots team that ran for 177 yards and three touchdowns in the first half last week.

Baltimore is coming off a tidy 24-0 shutout win over Cincinnati. But the Ravens still managed just 15 first downs and possessed the ball for just over 20 minutes. Therefore, I am backing a New England team that entered its bye two weeks ago as the only team ranked in the top 10 in offensive, defensive, and special teams EPA. 

The +130 odds offered at FanDuel trump the +124 odds on the low end of the market.

Titans over Chiefs (+161) ⭐⭐

I do not expect any of the three teams that are at least a touchdown underdogs (Browns, Steelers, or Raiders) to win outright, so Tennessee beating Kansas City despite all the Chiefs’ injuries still qualifies as my best long shot play.

With Kansas City snapping a 10-year streak of consecutive playoff appearances (tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history), there are questions about how it will respond. With its three-time Super Bowl champion quarterback having just torn his ACL and the team dealing with rumblings that Travis Kelce will retire after the season, this has the makings of a letdown spot for the Chiefs.

Tennessee’s offense is also trending up. Titans quarterback Cam Ward has thrown for multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games after failing to do so in any of his first 12 career games.

There is a decent gap between the +161 odds offered at Caesars and the +155 odds on the low end of the market.

🚀 NFL Week 16 upset parlay