NFL Upset Picks Week 7: Ranking Best Moneyline Underdog Predictions

Our NFL upset predictions today look to follow another strong week, in which we identified two of the biggest underdog winners, the Carolina Panthers (+164) and Atlanta Falcons (+176). 

With 11 of this week’s 15 games having point spreads of six or fewer points, we should be able to identify some outright underdog upsets as part of our NFL picks.

Our NFL predictions for Week 7 back the underdogs in another international series game and fade a favorite on Monday night amid a profitable run for underdogs in prime-time games.

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🏈 NFL underdog rankings: Week 7 upset predictions

NFL upset picks for Week 7; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 7

NFL upset picks based on the best NFL odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Jaguars (+145) ⭐⭐⭐

Many will be quick to jump off the Jacksonville Jaguars bandwagon after coming off their first home loss of the season, which also snapped a three-game winning streak. 

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was under constant duress in last week’s 20-12 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, as his 25 pressures were the most any quarterback has faced this season.

But Jacksonville also entered the week ranked third in Pass Block Win Rate, so I expect it to address its leaky offensive line issues. Lawrence had played well under pressure prior to Week 6, as he went 4-for-6 for 91 yards and two rushing touchdowns in the 12 dropbacks he was pressured in the Monday night win against the Kansas City Chiefs.

It becomes a more confident four-star play if the league’s second-leading receiver, Puka Nacua, cannot suit up because of the ankle injury he suffered last week.

That is why I am jumping on BetMGM’s +145 odds at a 40.82% implied probability early, in case it aligns with the most common +130 price on the low end of the market.

If Jacksonville pulls the upset in London, my $10 wager would net $14.50 in profits.

📊 Live Rams vs. Jaguars odds

🎯 Panthers (-104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While Carolina is 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road, I am backing it to win its first on enemy terrain against what should be a weary Jets team playing their first game after returning from London.

New York has started 0-6 for the third time in franchise history and hit rock bottom last week after finishing with a franchise-worst -10 passing yards in a loss to the Denver Broncos.

Meanwhile, Carolina has found an offensive formula that works, as running back Rico Dowdle’s 473 scrimmage yards over the last two weeks are the most in a two-game stretch in team history.

The Jets have no business being favored against anyone. I am taking advantage of FanDuel’s -104 price at 50.98% implied probability early in case this line jumps the fence.

If the Panthers earn their first road victory, my $10 wager would return $9.62 in profits.

📊 Live Panthers vs. Jets odds

🎯 Texans (+142) ⭐⭐

The Texans are coming off a bye to play Monday in Seattle, and Houston will hope quarterback C.J. Stroud keeps his momentum going after the week off. 

Stroud led the team to back-to-back wins after starting 0-3 and has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that winning streak after throwing more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two) over the first three games.

He had an NFL-best 94 Total QBR in Weeks 5 and 6, and the Texans should be competitive despite this step up in competition. 

Through the first three weeks, Houston faced opponents that were a combined 11-4. But it only had a minus-four points per game differential and was outgained by an average of 48 yards per game in those three losses. 

These +142 odds at a 41.32% implied probability offer great value when fading a Seahawks team that is just 2-8 in their last 10 home games. 

After the Giants beat the Eagles on Thursday in Week 6, underdogs had won four consecutive prime-time games outright. If Houston pulls the upset and evens its record at 3-3, my $10 winning wager would net $14.20 in profits.

📊 Live Texans vs. Seahawks odds

💰 Best NFL Week 7 underdog parlay

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