NFL Upset Picks Week 5: Ranking the Best Moneyline Underdog Predictions

Last week was our most profitable from an NFL upset picks perspective, as we cashed in on two of the six underdogs who won outright at +130 and -105 odds, respectively. 

This week's NFL picks, part of the NFL predictions for Week 5, back the upset of a team coming off its first victory, while also calling for one of the league’s unbeaten teams to suffer its first loss. 

🏈 NFL underdog rankings: Week 5 upset predictions

NFL upset picks made Thursday; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

🚨 Best NFL upset picks for Week 5

NFL upset picks based on the best NFL odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Browns (+185) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I am not letting the fact that Cleveland allowed 75 combined points to the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions, two of the NFL’s best offenses, skew my opinion that it has one of the best defenses.

The Browns held the Lions to 277 yards of total offense and limited David Montgomery to 12 yards on nine carries. Cleveland made a quarterback change after Joe Flacco committed a league-high eight turnovers. 

If Dillon Gabriel can play a cleaner game and challenge Minnesota with his running ability like Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart did against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Browns can pull off the upset.

In that scenario, the Browns can rely on their defense against a Vikings squad that finished last week with three backups and two starters on the offensive line.

Minnesota has the advantage of playing overseas last week, but a game with such a low total (O/U 35.5) should play into the underdog’s hands.

DraftKings offers the best value on the neutral-site ‘dogs, as the only one of the best sports betting sites offering better than +170 odds. A $10 winning wager at these 35.09% implied probability would net $1.50 more in profits ($18.50) than the next-best odds of +170 ($17).

📊 Live Vikings vs. Browns odds

🎯 Broncos (+170) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the league’s two remaining 4-0 teams, but oddsmakers are tipping their hands that they may suffer their first loss against a stingy Broncos defense.

Philadelphia has been playing with fire to this point, outgained in total yards in every game. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts went 0-for-8 in the second half of last week’s win versus the Buccaneers after Tampa Bay dropped its blitz percentage from 50% in the first half to just 9% in the second half.

I expect Denver’s defense to follow that blueprint and take away Philadelphia’s passing attack, as the Eagles average the third-fewest targets per game to wide receivers. I’d feel better about this upset pick if Denver weren't playing on a short week, but it should still be brimming with confidence after a Monday night rout. 

Plenty of the best sports betting apps give Denver as high as a 37.88% implied probability to win the game with moneyline odds of +164. But a winning $10 wager through BetMGM’s +170 odds returns the best value of $17 in profits.

📊 Live Broncos vs. Eagles odds

🎯 Panthers (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This line jumped the fence as of Wednesday morning, taking Carolina from a 1.5-point home favorite to a 1.5-point home underdog. Aside from the fact that 57% of the early point spread wagers back the Miami Dolphins, I am not buying them as the road betting favorite on a short week after losing top wideout Tyreek Hill for the season with a knee injury. 

Miami had three takeaways and zero giveaways against the Jets last week, but still committed five turnovers while not forcing a single takeaway through the first three games. 

While Carolina’s road record dropped to 2-18 since 2023, with its .100 winning percentage being the worst in the NFL over that span, it also pitched a shutout in its last home game against an Atlanta Falcons team that scored 34 points last week.

Through BetMGM’s +100 odds that imply a 50% chance the Carolina Panthers will pull the upset, a $10 winning wager would net the same amount as the initial investment in profits.

📊 Live Dolphins vs. Panthers odds

💰 Best NFL Week 5 underdog parlay

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.