NFL Upset Picks Week 3: Ranking the Best Moneyline Underdog Bets

There were five moneyline upsets last week following three in Week 1, so I'm confident about identifying more NFL upset picks for Week 3, especially with injuries racking up.

I correctly predicted two of last week’s underdog winners (at +105 and +130 odds) in my NFL picks, and now I target a five-star moneyline play as part of the NFL predictions for Week 3. 

I round out my trio of upsets with a team that cashed last week, while taking a flier on fading the defending Super Bowl champions.

🏈 NFL underdog rankings: Week 3 upset predictions

NFL upset picks made Wednesday; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

🚨 Our best NFL upset picks for Week 3

NFL upset picks based on the best NFL odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Texans (+102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Houston is 9-3 in division games under C.J. Stroud over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 2-0 against Tennessee since the start of last season, but has lost three of its previous 17 games against everyone else.

Texas head coach DeMeco Ryans entered Week 2’s Monday Night Football contest 11-3 (.786) following a loss, which was the best winning percentage by a head coach since 2000.

While Houston’s red zone inefficiencies cost it a win, Jacksonville squandered a golden opportunity to steal a road win against the Bengals, who lost quarterback Joe Burrow for the entire second half.

After a top-three finish in receiving yards last season, Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has caught just five of his 19 targets. As long as he and quarterback Trevor Lawrence cannot get on the same page, Jacksonville’s offensive ceiling is lowered considerably.

FanDuel is our top choice among the best sports betting sites for Texans backers, as it's the only one currently offering plus-money odds.

Other sites have this game as a virtual pick’em with each team owning a 52.38% implied probability at -110 odds. FanDuel’s +102 odds offer a great potential $10.20 net profit on a $10 wager if Houston pulls the upset.

🎯 Patriots (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The New England Patriots snapped a five-game road losing streak at the Dolphins last week, while turning in their first performance of 30-plus points since October 2022.

The Steelers laid an egg at home in a 31-17 home loss to the Seahawks, and the defense has allowed 30-plus points in back-to-back games to start a season for the first time since 2002.

Meanwhile, Rodgers was pressured on 38% of dropbacks, which led to him averaging 4.7 yards per attempt, dropping his career record to 1-13 when averaging fewer than 4.8 yards per attempt.

A leaky run defense that allowed 182 rushing yards to the Jets and was carved up for 8.1 yards per carry by Kenneth Walker III last week does not inspire confidence against a Patriots squad that used a run-heavy offense (29 running plays to 23 pass plays) to pull last week’s upset.

Plenty of the best sports betting apps give New England a 50% implied probability to pull the upset, and a winning $10 wager at these +100 odds would return the same amount in profits.

🎯 Rams (+160) ⭐⭐⭐

I am fading the defending Super Bowl champions, as Los Angeles gave Philadelphia by far its toughest game in its playoff run last year. There could also be a letdown factor from the Eagles after beating Kansas City in a Super Bowl rematch.

Los Angeles is playing its second straight road game in the Eastern time zone. But its chances against the Eagles are better as an NFC opponent, as Philadelphia has won 10 consecutive games against AFC teams.

The last time the Rams started 2-0 was in 2021 when they won the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford’s back looks fine after completing 14 of 17 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns in the second half last week, and the defense got home for five sacks and eight hits on Cam Ward, while limiting him to 5.3 yards per attempt.

There is a big gap at the best sports betting apps between Los Angeles’ +160 odds and its +142 odds on the low end of the market, which carry a 41.32% implied probability of pulling the upset. At a price of +160, a $10 wager would net $16 in profits if the Rams remain undefeated.

💰 Best Week 3 underdog moneyline parlay

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

❓ NFL upset picks FAQs

What are the best NFL upset picks for Week 3?

My best NFL upset picks for Week 3 include the Houston Texans to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, the New England Patriots to knock off the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Los Angeles Rams to win as road underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles.

How do NFL moneyline odds work?

When betting on the NFL, the underdog will have the "longer" odds and is typically priced at "plus-money" odds that indicate the profit on a $100 bet. For example, a team with +150 odds would turn a $100 bet into a $150 profit - or a $10 bet into a $15 profit - according to our odds converter.

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