NFL Upset Picks Week 2: Ranking the Best Moneyline Underdog Bets

Only three NFL underdogs won outright in Week 1, which made the pickings slim from an NFL upset picks perspective, but oddsmakers have adjusted, and we should be able to identify more ‘dogs this week with my NFL upset picks for Week 2. 

The below NFL picks target two five-star moneyline plays as part of the NFL predictions for Week 2, and I'll round out my trio of upset picks with a wager on one of the two Monday Night Football games. 

🏈 NFL underdog rankings: Week 2 upset predictions

NFL upset picks made Wednesday; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

🚨 Our best NFL upset picks for Week 2

NFL upset picks based on the best NFL odds for each matchup; live odds included below each prediction.

🎯 Patriots (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye’s 3-10 record after last week’s loss is less than inspiring, but I still have more confidence in Mike Vrabel as a head coach than Mike McDaniel.

McDaniel’s Miami Dolphins suffered their third loss of at least 25 points in four seasons with him at the helm. Worse, they made New York Giants castoff Daniel Jones look like an MVP candidate, after he became the fifth player in NFL history to throw for 250 yards and run for two or more touchdowns in a season opener.

This is still a Patriots team whose preseason win total was set at 8.5 coming off a four-win season, so I am not jumping ship on them after losing their home opener to Pete Carroll, who improved to 4-0 in the first game with a new team.

The best sports betting sites are closely aligned with New England’s moneyline odds, which only dip as low as +104. BetMGM’s +105 odds carry a 48.78% chance of the Patriots pulling the upset, and a winning $10 wager would yield $10.50 in profits.

🎯 Chiefs (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, which the Philadelphia Eagles dominated, particularly on defense.

But I am banking on the Arrowhead crowd to make all the difference, and I am not opposing Patrick Mahomes, who is 1-1 as the Kansas City Chiefs’ signal caller as a home underdog and who won 11 of his first 15 starts as a ‘dog of any kind.

Kansas City will need its retooled offensive line to block better against an Eagles front that got home for six sacks and 16 pressures without blitzing once in last year’s Super Bowl victory. 

The Chiefs abandoned the run with seven designed running plays, the fewest by any team in Super Bowl history. A more balanced offensive attack should make all the difference against an Eagles defense that allowed 20 first-half points to the Dallas Cowboys last week.

DraftKings is the only one of the best sports betting sites offering plus-money odds to back the home underdogs at this time of writing. Through its 48.78% implied probability at +105 odds, a $10 winning wager would return $10.50 in net profits.

🎯 Buccaneers (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers know a thing or two about starting a season strong, as they won their fifth straight season opener last week.

The buzz around Emeka Egbuka eventually being the replacement for wide receiver Mike Evans also has plenty of merit, after the rookie became the second player in Buccaneers history with two touchdowns in his NFL debut.

The Houston Texans already missed running back Joe Mixon’s services last week, and need to get healthy in a hurry at wide receiver. 

Houston turned in its third game in the last three seasons without an offensive touchdown. And quarterback C.J. Stroud was pressured on 41.2% of his dropbacks, which is worse than the 36% pressure rate he faced last year, which ranked 33rd. 

Tampa Bay’s moneyline odds go as low as +120 (carrying a 45.45% implied probability), so I am jumping on the +130 odds at Caesars in case Houston’s Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios cannot suit up for a second straight week. If the Buccaneers win outright, a $10 winning wager would return $13 in profits.

💰 Best Week 2 underdog moneyline parlay

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

❓ NFL upset picks FAQs

What are the best NFL upset picks for Week 2?

My best NFL upset picks for Week 2 include the New England Patriots to beat the Miami Dolphins, the Kansas City Chiefs to knock off the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win as road underdogs on Monday Night Football against the Houston Texans.

How do NFL moneyline odds work?

When betting on the NFL, the underdog will have the "longer" odds and is typically priced at "plus-money" odds that indicate the profit on a $100 bet. For example, a team with +150 odds would turn a $100 bet into a $150 profit - or a $10 bet into a $15 profit - according to our odds converter.

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