NFL Upset Picks Week 1: Ranking the Top Moneyline Underdog Bets

NFL upset picks were fruitful early on last season, with underdogs of a touchdown or more going 4-0 SU and ATS across the first three weeks of the 2024 campaign.

I don't see that happening this weekend, with the two heavy underdogs being the Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans. But I am targeting two five-star underdog moneyline plays as part of our NFL predictions for Week 1.

Let's dive into my three best upset NFL picks as we kick off another season of pro football.

🏈 NFL upset picks: Week 1 underdog rankings

NFL upset picks made Thursday; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

🚨 Our best NFL upset picks for Week 1

NFL upset picks based on the best NFL odds for each matchup; subject to change.

🎯 Seahawks (+116) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Seahawks have been terrific in home openers, winning 14 of their last 16. Seattle won its last regular season meeting against the 49ers last year as 5.5-point road underdogs, and the 49ers receiving corps starts the season without an injured Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, who is no longer with the team.

This bet is banking on new Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold looking more like the player who went 14-2 with a 64 Total QBR in the first 16 games last season as opposed to the signal caller who lost each of his final two starts while recording a 15 total QBR.

The best sports betting sites are closely aligned with Seattle’s moneyline odds only ranging from +114 to +116 at this time of writing. FanDuel’s +116 odds carry a 46.30% chance of the Seahawks pulling the upset, and a $10 winning wager would net $11.60 in profits.

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🎯 Texans (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Rams have been late bloomers over the last two seasons while struggling early. That's good news for the Texans in this matchup.

Through Weeks 1-9 over the last two seasons, Los Angeles is 7-10 with its quarterbacks producing a 58 Total QBR and a 1.3 TD:INT ratio. But in Weeks 10-18, the team is a combined 13-4 while improving its Total QBR and TD:INT ratio to 72 and 4.5, respectively.

Despite Houston’s offensive line woes last year that saw quarterback C.J. Stroud sacked 52 times, the Texans should not be this big of underdogs when Matthew Stafford has been limited in practice during the offseason while he deals with an aggravated disc in his back.

Houston’s moneyline odds go as low as +124 (carrying a 44.64% implied probability), so I am jumping on the +130 odds at DraftKings in case we get some surprise news that Stafford will not start. If the Texans win outright, a $10 winning wager would return $13 in profits.

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🎯 Jets (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There will be a ton of energy and buzz at Metlife Stadium for this matchup between the Steelers and Jets, who essentially swapped quarterbacks this offseason.

In Aaron Rodgers’ last two healthy seasons before signing with Pittsburgh, he finished 25th and 26th in Total QBR. He is also coming off career-lows in yards per attempt (6.7) and yards per dropback (5.8) with New York last year.

I am not buying a late-career resurgence for Rodgers in the Steel City, especially since the Steelers traded away George Pickens from a receiving corps that ranked 29th or worse in receiving yards, receptions, and yards after the catch last season. Look for Aaron Glenn to pull the home upset in his NFL head coaching debut.

There is a big difference between the +120 odds at FanDuel (with a 45.45% implied probability) on the low end of the market and the +130 offered at DraftKings. At the higher price, a $10 winning wager would return $1 more in profits than making this play at +120 ($13 compared to $12).

📈 NFL upset picks for Week 1 odds update

While the Jets' odds remained largely the same across the best sports betting apps, Houston's odds (+135) and Seattle's odds (+120) marginally lengthened as of Thursday afternoon. That makes a bet on them now more profitable if they pull off their respective upset.

💰 Best Week 1 underdog moneyline parlay

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

❓ NFL upset picks FAQs

What are the best NFL upset picks for Week 1?

My best NFL upset picks for Week 1 include the Seattle Seahawks to beat the San Francisco 49ers, the Houston Texans to knock off the Los Angeles Rams, and the New York Jets to win as home underdogs against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

How do NFL moneyline odds work?

When betting on the NFL, the underdog will have the "longer" odds and is typically priced at "plus-money" odds that indicate the profit on a $100 bet. For example, a team with +150 odds would turn a $100 bet into a $150 profit - or a $10 bet into a $15 profit - according to our odds converter.

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