NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks for Week 7: Zeke Extends TD Streak vs. Lions
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is set to run all over the Detroit Lions and headlines our NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks for Week 7.
This will be the fifth week for this column, and it’s been both oodles of fun and profitable. There are a number of outlier odds that stand out and prime matchups to target for Week 7, so onward and upward, as they say.
Here are our Week 7 NFL touchdown prop picks (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (-115 via Caesars) ★★★★
- Allen Lazard, Packers (+190 via PointsBet) ★★
- Diontae Johnson, Steelers (+215 via DraftKings) ★★★
Ezekiel Elliott anytime TD scorer (-115) ★★★★
The Detroit Lions have been gashed on the ground for 10 rushing scores through just five games and rank second last in rushing defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders.
As a result, I like Elliott scoring six for the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7. He has found the end zone twice and handled eight red-zone carries through the past four games. I also anticipate the entire offense receiving a considerable boost with No. 1 quarterback Dak Prescott back behind center.
There is a caveat here, though. The touchdown markets for the Lions-Cowboys game aren’t widely released yet, and there is typically a wide disparity in the anytime touchdown odds across sportsbooks.
So, there’s potential for better odds for an Elliott anytime touchdown to be available in the future. Prospective bettors could wait, or place a half-unit wager now and then shop for the best number once all the odds are released.
Allen Lazard anytime TD scorer (+190) ★★
With a trip to the end zone in four of five games this season, Lazard’s odds look long, and especially against a vulnerable opponent.
The Washington Commanders have surrendered eight scores to wide receivers this season, and ranked third-worst in pass defense DVOA through the first four weeks. Facing the Tennessee Titans and Chicago Bears the past two weeks have inflated their statistics, but I still consider the Commanders among the worst pass defenses in the NFL.
I also remain confident the Green Bay Packers are going to hit stride – or at least improve – in the coming weeks, and Lazard is quarterback Aaron Rodgers’s No. 1 target. If this is finally the long-awaited statement showing from the Packers, Lazard will be a big part of it.
Diontae Johnson anytime TD scorer (+215) ★★★
Johnson checks out as this week’s pick who’s eyeing statistical correction. The fourth-year wide receiver scored 15 times across 31 games the past two seasons, but he’s failed to find the end zone to this point of the 2022 campaign.
The Miami Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and have the fifth-lowest coverage grade per Pro Football Focus, so this also checks out as a plus-matchup. Additionally, there’s been no shortage of opportunities for Johnson, as he’s garnered 57 targets including six red zone looks.
This is also an example where I’d consider this as a multi-week bet because of the long odds to score against the Dolphins and tough Week 8 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles ahead. Johnson will likely be trading at a higher number against Philly, and there’s added potential for a garbage-time score against the soaring Eagles.
First Touchdown Scorer Pick
- Gerald Everett, Chargers (+1000 via DraftKings) ★
Gerald Everett first TD scorer (+1000)
With two touchdowns and six red-zone targets on the season, Everett is a flier to score the first touchdown in the Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Chargers tilt. The first-year Bolt has 24 career receptions of over 20 yards and ranks seventh in yards after the catch per reception among tight ends this season. He's dangerous all over the field.
The Seahawks have also been a dream matchup for opposing tight ends with the highest yards per target in the league allowed and 30th-ranked defensive DVOA against the position. I’m not a narrative guy, but Everett scoring against his former team fits.
Plus, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley and Everett were also together with the Los Angeles Rams during the 2020 season, so perhaps there’s even an added incentive to help Everett stick it to the Seahawks. He’s also trading at +190 for an anytime touchdown via Caesars, so you can place both wagers and still grab a profit as long as Everett finds the end zone Sunday.
Two or More Touchdowns Pick
- George Kittle, 49ers (+1500 via FanDuel) ★★
George Kittle two or more touchdowns (+1500)
Kittle has only scored two touchdowns in a game once during his six-year career, and he only has three red zone targets through four games this season. Still, these are long odds, and I’m encouraged by his uptick to eight receptions for 83 yards on 10 targets against the Atlanta Falcons last week.
Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox also found the end zone against the Kansas City Chiefs last week, which was the fourth time a tight end has scored on KC this season.
Kittle is trading at +200 to score an anytime touchdown via PointsBet, so pairing the two wagers could also be an advantageous angle. This game has one of the highest Over/Under totals of the week, and Kittle is positioned to build off last week’s season-best showing.
Where to Bet on NFL Touchdown Prop Picks
Week 7 NFL touchdown prop picks made 10/21/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
