NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks for Week 6: Stage Set for a Stevenson Score
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson is eyeing an uptick in opportunity against the Cleveland Browns, and he headlines our Week 6 NFL touchdown scorer prop picks.
The NFL season is rolling along, and there are a number of favorable matchups to target in the touchdown scorer prop markets in Week 6.
Here are our Week 6 NFL touchdown prop picks (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots (+105 via DraftKings) ★★★★
- Adam Thielen, Vikings (+200 via PointsBet) ★★★
- Romeo Doubs, Packers (+220 via PointsBet) ★★
Stevenson anytime TD scorer (+105)
The Browns have already surrendered eight touchdowns to running backs this season, and Stevenson should have a significant workload with fellow backfield mate Damien Harris (ankle) expected to miss Sunday’s tilt.
With the Browns also ranking last in EPA per rush and rush defense DVOA per Football Outsiders, there’s a lot to like about Stevenson’s upside to find the end zone in Week 6. It’s also worth highlighting he’s trading as low as -200 to score via BetMGM.
The second-year back is averaging 5.5 yards per tote and ranks fourth in rushing success rate this season. Stevenson is also +700 via DraftKings to score the first touchdown of the game, which is an intriguing number.
Thielen anytime TD scorer (+200)
Statistical correction is ahead for Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen, and the Miami Dolphins might just be the perfect opponent for him to cash in against. The Dolphins are also last in pass defense DVOA.
Thielen found the end zone 24 times across 28 games during the past two seasons. With just a single score this season despite receiving eight red-zone targets through five games, I’m confident his second touchdown is coming sooner than later.
If Thielen doesn’t score this week, I’ll definitely be tracking his odds to find the end zone in Week 8 against the Arizona Cardinals following the Vikings' bye week. He’s also a healthy +1400 via FanDuel to score twice against Miami if you’re seeking an option with longer odds.
Doubs anytime TD scorer (+220)
After receiving a red-zone target in each of his first four games and scoring in Weeks 3 and 4, Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs was held in check and didn’t garner a red-zone look against the New York Giants last week.
This checks out as a bounce-back matchup for the rookie wideout. The New York Jets' secondary has allowed the fourth-highest DVOA to No. 2 wide receivers to start the season, and Doubs also ranks 10th among wide receivers in average yards of separation per Next Gen Stats.
With Doubs trading 20 cents higher via PointsBet than any other sportsbook to score Sunday, and him having another week to foster his chemistry with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, this prop stood out as a value to me.
First Touchdown Scorer Picks
- Mike Evans, Buccaneers (+550 via DraftKings) ★★
Evans first TD Scorer (+550)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been gashed through the air this season with a league-high nine touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. Additionally, their secondary is banged up and multiple starters could either miss Sunday’s game or play at less than 100% health against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Steelers were also already trending in the wrong direction with the fifth-worst pass defense DVOA and eighth-highest EPA per dropback allowed over the past three weeks.
Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans has found the end zone 30 times across 36 games since quarterback Tom Brady arrived in Tampa. As such, I also like Evans’ +115 anytime touchdown odds via Caesars. You can bet both, and if Evans doesn’t score first but still finds pay dirt, you’ll turn a profit.
Two or More Touchdown Picks
- Gabe Davis, Bills (+950 via Caesars) ★★
Davis two or more Touchdowns (+950)
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis is coming off a two-touchdown showing against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, and he visited the end zone four times against the Kansas City Chiefs during last year’s AFC Divisional Round loss.
Check out our Bills-Chiefs picks.
So, why not tee him up for another multi-score showing?
The Bills-Chiefs contest has the highest Over/Under line on the docket, and the Chiefs have also been vulnerable through the air with seven touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers – tied for fifth-most in the league.
Davis is trading as low as +500 to score two touchdowns via BetMGM, so turning to Caesars has considerably more value. Additionally, with Davis’ anytime touchdown trading at +160 via Caesars, this is another example where you can place both bets and still profit as long as he finds the end zone Sunday.
Where to Bet on NFL Touchdown Prop Picks
Week 6 NFL touchdown prop picks made 10/14/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
