NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks for Week 5: TD Time for Etienne

It’s touchdown time for Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne, and he headlines our Week 5 touchdown prop picks.
Neil Parker
Neil Parker

Last Updated: September 11, 2024 2:42 PM EDT • 4 minute read

It’s touchdown time for Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne, and he headlines our Week 5 touchdown scorer prop picks.

There is considerable variance in almost every player’s touchdown odds at each of our top-rated sportsbooks. Bettors can often find value by shopping for the best number in these markets.

With four weeks of action in the books, there is more data to pinpoint favorable matchups. 

Here are our Week 5 NFL touchdown prop picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Anytime Touchdown Picks

  • Jeff Wilson, 49ers (+125 via PointsBet) ★★★
  • Travis Etienne, Jaguars (+220 via Points Bet) ★★★

Wilson anytime TD scorer (+125)

This is an outlier number, as most books are charging a vig that San Francisco 49ers running back Jeff Wilson will find the end zone for a second consecutive week. 

Wilson's handled nine red-zone carries on the season, and aside from wide receiver Deebo Samuel rushing eight times over the past two games, it’s been Wilson carrying the load out of the backfield for San Francisco.

The Carolina Panthers have been respectable against the run with the 10th-best rush DVOA per Football Outsiders. However, I anticipate Wilson will have multiple opportunities to run one in and cash this ticket. 

Etienne anytime TD scorer (+220)

With Etienne priced as low as +145 to find the end zone via DraftKings Sportsbook, I like the value offered by PointsBet. This projects to be a plus-matchup for the Jaguars against the Houston Texans' rush defense.

The Texans have surrendered six touchdowns to running backs this season. They also rank fourth last in rush defense DVOA and grade as the second-worst run defense per Pro Football Focus.

Etienne has four carries and three targets in the red zone without scoring through the first four weeks of the year. That changes Sunday.

First Touchdown Scorer Picks

  • Derrick Henry, Titans (+470 via FanDuel) ★★
  • Dallas Goedert, Eagles (+1100 via DraftKings) ★

Henry first TD scorer (+470)

Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans runs past Zaire Franklin of the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 02, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

Despite all three of Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry’s touchdowns coming in the first half of games this season, including two in the first quarter, he hasn’t yet been the first touchdown scorer in a game.

The Washington Commanders have found the end zone only twice in the past two weeks and rank 28th in overall offensive DVOA for the season. As a result, the Titans should be positioned to score the first touchdown of the game this week. It might just be Henry’s turn to make the score 6-0.

Goedert first TD scorer (+1100)

The Arizona Cardinals rank last in the NFL in EPA per play in the first half and have already allowed three touchdowns to tight ends this season. As such, there’s potential for Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert to score first Sunday.

After all, Goedert checks out as a downfield matchup problem and red-zone threat, and he ranks third in effective yards among tight ends this season per Football Outsiders.

These are long enough odds to catch my attention, especially with Philadelphia’s defense also likely to make it difficult for the Cards to kick their slow-start blues.   

Two or More Touchdowns Picks

  • Dalvin Cook, Vikings (+500 via FanDuel) ★

Cook two or more touchdowns (+500)

There’s statistical correction ahead for Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook. The Chicago Bears might just be the perfect opponent for Cook to run wild.

Cook has failed to break off a single 20-yard rush and has converted only one of his seven red-zone touches into a touchdown through four games. He rushed for 20 yards or more nine times in just 13 contests last season.

Chicago ranking 28th in EPA per rush allowed and sporting the sixth-lowest rush defense grade per PFF sweetens the deal. I’m expecting the Vikings to have their way with the Bears on Sunday.

Cook might not even need to break off a long touchdown run, as he should have multiple opportunities near the goal line to score.

Where to Bet on NFL Touchdown Prop Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

Week 5 NFL touchdown prop picks made 10/7/2022 at 11:12 a.m. ET

Written by:
Neil Parker
A lifelong Cowboys, Cubs, Maple Leafs and Gators supporter, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. His past stops include USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook and RotoWire among others. He's a graduate of St. Thomas University and Acadia University and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club.