Titans vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions Week 9: Can Tennessee Cover Double-Digit Spread?
The top two seeds in the AFC playoffs last year meet in a Sunday night battle. Read on for our Titans-Chiefs picks.
Though the Titans enter on a five-game winning streak, there's concern over starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill's health, who's looking on the wrong side of questionable. That's a big reason the Titans are +12.5 point underdogs, and if that line stays the same, the Titans will kick off as the biggest underdog in the Super Bowl era when entering a game with at least five consecutive victories.
Here are our Titans-Chiefs Week 9 NFL picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook,and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!
Titans vs. Chiefs Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6, 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Weather: 65 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, 7-mph SE wind
Titans vs. Chiefs Odds
Titans vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis
The Chiefs opened as -11 point favorites, but they've since been bet up as high as -12.5, as Tannehill playing appears more unlikely. The largest wagers are backing the favorites, with Kansas City attracting 64% of the cash and 67% of the tickets.
After opening at 46.5, the total has settled mostly between 45.5 and 46. The Under is getting 68% of the cash, while the Over is attracting 74% of the tickets.
Titans vs. Chiefs Picks
Titans vs. Chiefs ATS Pick
Titans +12.5 (-110) ★
The Chiefs aren't in any danger of losing this game outright, as they're 14-0 SU in their previous 14 games as at least seven point favorites. In addition, head coach Andy Reid’s 87% winning record off a bye week (20-3 SU) is the best all-time of any NFL coach. But there are still concerns about KC covering such a big number, especially since Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is 14-4 ATS when his teams are at least +4 point underdogs, winning 13 of those games.
Vrabel didn't ask much of rookie quarterback Malik Willis in his first start last week. He went 6-for-10 for 55 yards and an interception as the Titans rode running back Derrick Henry to victory. Since Week 3, Henry ranks first with 132 rushing attempts and 648 rushing yards and is tied for second with six rushing touchdowns. During the team’s five-game winning streak, he has 146 touches in that span, while the next highest of anyone on the team is 22.
Tennessee knows what it takes to beat Kansas City, winning the last two regular-season contests against them, including last season’s 27-3 victory. While things are tougher without Tannehill, this still seems like a disrespectful number.
Titans vs. Chiefs O/U Pick
Over 45.5 (-110) ★★★
This is a matchup of the league’s highest-scoring offense (Chiefs: 31.9 points per game) against the NFL’s worst total offense (Titans: 285.6 yards per game). However, we still like this game to go Over the projected total since these teams rank No. 1 and No. 2 in red zone touchdown percentage.
If you're worried about Henry’s ability to find success against stacked boxes, know that his 320 rushing yards against them are the NFL's most, twice as much as the next-best RB’s total (Nick Chubb). Also, the Titans allow the sixth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position, so JuJu Smith-Schuster is a great candidate to go over 100 yards and find the endzone for a third straight game.
Titans vs. Chiefs Prop Pick
Titans Over 1.5 team total TDs (-150) ★★★
The Chiefs' defense allows a 69 QBR when using a standard pass rush (ranks 30th) while holding opponents to a 45 QBR when blitzing (7th). They allow a 71.4% completion percentage when not blitzing (30th) and do not project much pressure when facing a running QB like Willis. That should let the rookie get comfortable, and the team can rely on a league-best ground game (107.9 rushing YPG) to move the ball.
Where to Bet on Titans vs. Chiefs Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Titans-Chiefs picks made 11/5/2022 at 8:34 a.m. ET
