Texans vs. Steelers Prediction: Best Prediction Market Odds From Kalshi for Wild Card Weekend

With one spot remaining in the Divisional Round, I've made my Texans vs. Steelers prediction based on Kalshi's market odds.  

The Texans are the 3-point betting favorite despite playing at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh for tonight's final wild-card game (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC). Mike Tomlin has shown an unrivaled ability to elicit the best from his teams in these situations, and I believe that will be the case again. The winner advances to face the New England Patriots, filling in the final Divisional Round spot in the NFL playoff bracket. 

🆚 Who will win Texans vs. Steelers at prediction markets?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

The Texans are trading at 58%, while the Steelers are at 42%. The Texans’ Yes price is 59 cents, and Pittsburgh’s is 42 cents.

Using our odds converter, the Texans’ 58% odds convert to -138 in American odds, while the Steelers 42% cents converts to +138.

Texans vs. Steelers prediction: Steelers

See all of our NFL picks throughout the playoffs.

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 25-10-3 against the spread as a home underdog in his career. While covering at a 71.4% rate doesn’t guarantee a straight-up win, it does highlight how the market undervalues Tomlin’s ability to motivate his team when they’re outmatched.

⚖️ Texans vs. Steelers spread & Over/Under at prediction markets

Our prediction: Steelers +2.5

As previously stated, Tomlin covers at a 71.4% clip in his career when catching points at home. While this is just under the key number of three, paying only 47 cents on +2.5 is a much better price than you’ll find elsewhere.

🙌 Texans vs. Steelers props at prediction markets

Kalshi offers a wide range of props on every game, including team totals, player touchdowns, receptions, and passing, rushing, and receiving yards on all notable skill players. Simply choose the market of your liking, select your desired player and prop line and make your pick on Yes or No.

Texans vs. Steelers touchdown scorer props at prediction markets

💰 Texans vs. Steelers touchdown prediction: Kenneth Gainwell to score anytime touchdown (32%)

Kenneth Gainwell had the second-most carries (114) for the Steelers during the regular season, along with the second-most targets (85). Paying just 31 cents for him to reach the end zone is a solid price, as the Steelers running back has scored a touchdown in three of his last five games.

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook. For example, in an NFL-style market, there could be a contract asking whether the Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl. If you think they will, you might buy a “Yes” contract at 35 cents, which implies a 35 percent chance. If the Bills win, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 65 cents per contract. If they lose, it settles at $0. Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowd’s collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line. Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.

Why should I wager on Texans vs. Steelers at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

1. Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
2. Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
3. Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
4. Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.

💡 Texans vs. Steelers expert picks

• Texans vs. Steelers prediction
• Texans vs. Steelers player props
• Texans vs. Steelers prediction market
• Texans vs. Steelers anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• Texans vs. Steelers first touchdown scorer predictions
• Texans vs. Steelers same-game parlay
• Texans vs. Steelers AI picks
• Texans vs. Steelers weather report
• Texans vs. Steelers expert picks
• Will Mike Tomlin be fired?
• Will Aaron Rodgers retire?

📺 How to watch Texans vs. Steelers: NFL Wild Card Weekend

• Date: Monday, Jan. 12
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
• TV: ESPN