Texans vs. Patriots Prediction & Opening Odds: NFL Divisional Round First Look

After dismantling the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston is off to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., to face New England in the Divisional Round, and my Texans vs. Patriots prediction expects the home betting favorite to win and cover the spread. 

New England is the 2.5 or 3-point early betting favorite, but I don't expect the former to last long. While the Texans' defense showed again why it's widely considered the best, I'm more confident in Mike Vrabel's collective at home, which I discuss in the analysis below. The game will take place on Sunday, Jan. 18, and it's part of our NFL Divisional Round predictions. We're still awaiting confirmation on kickoff time. 

🏈 Texans vs. Patriots early prediction: NFL Divisional Round

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Patriots -2.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

New England's defense has come on of late, holding opponents to 20 points or fewer six times in the previous eight games. It faces a Texans offense that scored two TDs in the wild-card win, one of which came against an exhausted Steelers defense in garbage time. 

C.J. Stroud, who committed three turnovers, looked panicked for most of the game, and his offense disjointed. While it's early, I doubt Nico Collins will be ready to go after suffering what appeared to be a significant injury. 

Drake Maye hasn't looked disjointed all season, and I'm confident the Patriots will get the job done with their palpable advantage on the offensive side of the ball, even against a game-wrecking Texans defense that scored two TDs against Pittsburgh. 

📊 Texans vs. Patriots odds: NFL Divisional Round

Texans vs. Patriots odds provided by FanDuel, one of the best sports betting sites. 

Texans vs. Patriots opening odds

• Moneyline: Texans +126 | Patriots -148
• Spread: Texans +2.5 (-104) | Patriots -2.5 (-118)
• Over/Under: Over 41.5 (-105) | Under 41.5 (-115)

Texans vs. Patriots line movement

If you're backing the Patriots, FanDuel offers the key number of +/- 2.5 points. DraftKings and BetMGM have the spread at +/- 3, so lock it in there if you're backing Houston. Get your pick in at FanDuel as quickly as possible if you like the +/- 2.5, as it will likely align with the others at +/- 3 soon. 

📈 Texans vs. Patriots trends & betting notes: NFL Divisional Round

• The Texans haven't allowed more than 16 points in five straight road games
• The Patriots conceded more than 20 points twice in the previous eight games
• After winning in Pittsburgh, Houston improved to 5-4 ATS on the road
• New England is 5-4-1 ATS at home

📺 How to watch Texans vs. Patriots: NFL Divisional Round

• Date: Sunday, Jan. 18
• Kickoff: TBD
• Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
• TV: TBD