Texans vs. Patriots Prediction & Odds: NFL Divisional Round Best Bet, Preview

I'm backing sophomore Drake Maye to continue showing composure well beyond his years in my Texans vs. Patriots prediction for Sunday's Divisional Round clash at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. (3 p.m. ET, ESPN). 

The Patriots, who have won seven of the previous eight games at home, are the 3-point betting favorite. The Texans, meanwhile, are on a 10-game winning streak, which includes five straight on the road. The analysis below is part of the NFL Divisional Round predictions. 

🏈 Texans vs. Patriots early prediction: NFL Divisional Round

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Patriots -2.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

New England's defense has come on of late, holding opponents to 20 points or fewer six times in the previous eight games. It faces a Texans offense that scored two TDs in the wild-card win, one of which came against an exhausted Steelers defense in garbage time. 

C.J. Stroud, who committed three turnovers, looked panicked for most of the game, and his offense disjointed. While it's early, I doubt Nico Collins will be ready to go after suffering what appeared to be a significant injury. 

Drake Maye hasn't looked disjointed all season, and I'm confident the Patriots will get the job done with their palpable advantage on the offensive side of the ball, even against a game-wrecking Texans defense that scored two TDs against Pittsburgh. 

📊 Texans vs. Patriots odds: NFL Divisional Round

Texans vs. Patriots opening odds

• Moneyline: Texans +126 | Patriots -148
• Spread: Texans +2.5 (-104) | Patriots -2.5 (-118)
• Over/Under: Over 41.5 (-105) | Under 41.5 (-115)

Texans vs. Patriots line movement

If you're backing the Patriots, FanDuel offers the key number of +/- 2.5 points. DraftKings and BetMGM have the spread at +/- 3, so lock it in there if you're backing Houston. Get your pick in at FanDuel as quickly as possible if you like the +/- 2.5, as it will likely align with the others at +/- 3 soon. 

📈 Texans vs. Patriots trends & betting notes: NFL Divisional Round

• The Texans haven't allowed more than 16 points in five straight road games
• The Patriots conceded more than 20 points twice in the previous eight games
• After winning in Pittsburgh, Houston improved to 5-4 ATS on the road
• New England is 5-4-1 ATS at home

📺 How to watch Texans vs. Patriots: NFL Divisional Round

• Date: Sunday, Jan. 18
• Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
• TV: ESPN