Texans vs. Bears Picks, Predictions NFL Week 3: Lovie Smith Returns Home

Lovie Smith returns to Soldier Field for the first time as an opposing head coach on Sunday. He brings his 0-1-1 Houston Texans to town to play the Bears, who he led to a berth in Super Bowl XLI. See who we like with our Texans-Bears picks.

The Texans haven’t won a game this season (0-1-1) but are 2-0 against the spread after tying the Indianapolis Colts 20-20 in Week 1 and covering against the Denver Broncos in a 16-9 loss in Week 2.

The Bears are 1-1 straight up and against the spread. They upset the San Francisco 49ers 19-10 in Week 1 at Soldier Field before losing 27-10 to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night Football.

Here are our Texans-Bears NFL picks for Week 3 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Texans vs. Bears Game Info

Date: Sunday, Sept. 25, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Weather: 74 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds

Texans vs. Bears Odds Analysis

After Week 1, the Bears were favored by 3. The line has dropped slightly to 2.5 at -115 via BetMGM, but remains at 3 everywhere else. Sixty-seven percent of the tickets are backing Chicago but those account for just 45% of the handle.

The Bears were favored at -165 at one point, but have dropped to -144 at FanDuel. If you’re on the Texans, the best spot is DraftKings where they are +130 on the ML.

The total opened at 38.5 and has increased to 40.5 across the board. The Over’s best price is -107 via PointsBet and the Under is at -105 via FanDuel. Both the tickets and handle are heavily weighted to the Under.

Texans vs. Bears Picks

• Spread: Bears -3 (-105 via FanDuel) ★★★★★
• Over/Under: Under 40.5 (-107 via PointsBet) ★★★★
• Prop pick: Bears to score first and win (+150 via DraftKings) ★★★★

Texans vs. Bears ATS Pick

Bears -3 (-105) ★★★★★

The Bears have passed the ball 28 times through two games, the lowest of all teams. Their entire game plan has been built around the run, where they have accrued an average of 139.5 yards per game, which is eighth best in the NFL.

The Texans have struggled to stop the run, allowing 163.0 yards per game on the ground, which is 30th in the league. I expect the Bears to run the ball and control the entire game.

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Texans vs. Bears O/U Pick

Under 40.5 (-107) ★★★★

Even though the Over/Under has increased by as much as 2 points, neither one of these teams has been in a game this year that topped the betting total.

Both offenses are tied for 26th-worst in points per game at 14.5. The defenses are the stronger side for both teams, with the Texans allowing 18.0 points per game and the Bears allowing 18.5.

Texans vs. Bears Prop Pick

Bears score first and win (+150) ★★★★

Even though the Bears played poorly in a 27-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers last week, they did have a great scripted first drive that led to the game's opening touchdown. The Texans didn’t score in the first quarter in Week 1 and managed only three points in Week 2’s opening quarter.

Whether the Bears get the ball first or hold the Texans on their opening drive, I see Chicago's offense going to script, scoring first, and winning the game.

Where to Bet on Texans vs. Bears Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Texans-Bears picks made 9/21/2022 at 8:57 a.m. ET