How Have Betting Underdogs Like the Patriots Performed Historically in Super Bowl?
Not only is the Super Bowl underdog history interesting, but the trends and recent track records I discuss below will help inform the decision of those considering backing the New England Patriots.
While there can only be one underdog, neither team entered the season among the list of contenders. Let's see how underdogs have fared historically in the Big Game, and find out where the Seattle Seahawks and Patriots would sit on the list of the biggest preseason underdogs to win.
🐶 How betting underdogs perform in Super Bowl
The Patriots are the betting underdog entering Super Bowl 60, currently sitting at +4.5, according to the Super Bowl odds. There are a couple of ways to look at and bet on underdogs, most notably on the moneyline or as a spread bet.
Moneyline wagers are also referred to as straight-up bets, which are solely based on the outright winner.
Spread betting is where you back the underdog to lose by fewer than a certain number of points, 4.5 in the case of the Patriots, or win the game.
🔢 What is the record of Super Bowl underdogs?
A pre-game favorite was determined in 58 of 59 previous Super Bowls, with the one pick'em exception occurring in 2015, the only other time the Seahawks and Patriots met in the Super Bowl.
Underdogs won 21 of those 58 Super Bowls and are 4-1 in the previous five. The Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 56 were the only betting favorite to win in that timeframe.
🖐️ What is the ATS record of Super Bowl underdogs?
In 58 non-pick-em Super Bowls, the betting underdog is 28-28-2. The Philadelphia Eagles, who entered Super Bowl 59 as the 1.5-point betting underdog, brought underdogs back to a .500 ATS record.
Most betting underdogs that cover the spread also win. Only nine times has the betting underdog covered the spread or pushed and lost the Super Bowl.
📈 Super Bowl underdog betting trends
- ATS underdogs are 17-6 in the previous 23 Super Bowls.
- The six ATS favorites to win in the timeframe were: The Chiefs in Super Bowl 54, the Patriots in Super Bowl 53 and 51, the Packers in Super Bowl 45, the Colts in Super Bowl 41, and the Steelers in Super Bowl 40
- ATS underdogs are 13-5 in the previous 18 Super Bowls
- ATS underdogs are 4-1 in the previous 5 Super Bowls
- Underdogs are 9-1 in the last 10 where the half-time show is male
- ATS underdogs are 9-2 in Super Bowls where the spread is larger than 3 points since 2003
📈 Biggest pre-season underdogs to win Super Bowl
Both teams featuring in Super Bowl 2026 were considered long shots before the season began, with the Seahawks at +6000 and the Patriots at +12500 at BetMGM.
Seattle's preseason implied probability was 1.64%, and New England's was 0.79%.
Dating back to 1977, when preseason odds started being tracked, only one team, the 1999 Kurt Warner-led St. Louis Rams, were less likely to win than the 2026 Patriots and Seahawks.
The 1999 Rams started the season at +15000, carrying a 0.66% probability. Below are the 10 biggest preseason underdogs to win the Big Game since 1977.
| Super Bowl | Winning team | Pre-season odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | St. Louis Rams | +15000 | 0.66% |
| 2001 | New England Patriots | +6000 | 0.79% |
| 1981 | San Francisco 49ers | +5000 | 1.96% |
| 2017 | Philadelphia Eagles | +4000 | 2.44% |
| 1982 | Washington Redskins | +3500 | 2.78% |
| 1980 | Oakland Raiders | +3500 | 2.78% |
| 2007 | New York Giants | +3000 | 3.23% |
| 2011 | New York Giants | +2000 | 4.76% |
| 2009 | New Orleans Saints | +2000 | 4.76% |
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