Super Bowl MVP Odds at Prediction Markets: Sam Darnold Favored at Kalshi

Sam Darnold and Drake Maye lead the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots into battle in the 2026 Super Bowl tonight at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. (6:30 p.m. ET, NBC). They're the two favorites by the Super Bowl MVP odds at prediction markets like Kalshi. But is there value below?

We're tracking the live odds for this marquee Super Bowl betting market all day, along with my best predictions to trade.

🏆 Super Bowl MVP odds & prediction market (Kalshi)

Super Bowl MVP prediction market odds via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

Here are the full Super Bowl MVP odds for the top options being traded at Kalshi, with the percent chance converted to American odds:

Investing $10 on Darnold as the favorite (45% percent change) would return a profit of $13 per share with the 45-cent yes price. The same investment in Patriots receiver Stefon Diggs (2-cent yes price) would return a profit of $490. Darnold is the favorite over Maye, with the Seahawks the 4.5-point favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP.

Kalshi has a secondary Super Bowl MVP market asking for the position of the award winner. Both quarterbacks are grouped with a 73% chance to win. Wide receivers have a 21% chance, and running backs and defensive players both have a 12% chance.

💰 Super Bowl MVP prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

See all of our Super Bowl MVP predictions and expert picks.

I'm committed to Jaxon Smith-Njigba as my best Super Bowl MVP prediction. While it is an official rematch of Super Bowl XLIX between the Seahawks and Patriots, both sides are entirely different as fresh blood and inexperience reign supreme in Super Bowl 2026.

I also have Smith-Njigba as my top Super Bowl anytime touchdown scorer prediction. The former 20th overall pick led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards in just his third NFL season. 

Why I'm fading the QBs for Super Bowl MVP

Most importantly for this Super Bowl MVP prediction, JSN won't be committing mistakes the way Darnold and Maye could. While quarterbacks are regularly favored in this market, this isn't the past matchups we've seen that featured Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts, or Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow.

Darnold (28) and Maye (23) are both in their first Super Bowl. They threw 14 and eight interceptions this season, respectively. Maye threw another two this postseason, along with six fumbles.

While I'm enamored with this particular new-look matchup, either one would need to play close to mistake-free football to win this award. That's why I'm riding with Smith-Njigba as my best Super Bowl MVP prediction at Kalshi for a $57 profit on a $10 stake.

What is Kalshi and how does it work for the Super Bowl MVP market?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Instead of trading on point spreads or totals, users trade on clearly defined real-world outcomes using simple contracts.

For the Super Bowl MVP market, that outcome is straightforward: which player will be named Super Bowl MVP. Each eligible player has a contract tied to them becoming the award winner.

Each contract settles at $1 if the player wins MVP and $0 if they do not. Prices are shown in cents and function as implied probabilities. For example, buying a “Yes” contract at 40 cents suggests the market believes that player has a 40 percent chance to win MVP. If the player is named MVP, the contract settles at $1. If not, it settles at $0.

Prices move as users buy and sell contracts, reflecting changing expectations based on performance, game flow, and market sentiment.

How is Kalshi different from sportsbooks?

Kalshi operates as an exchange rather than a house-based model. Users trade directly with each other, and prices are determined by supply and demand instead of fixed odds set by an operator.

Key differences include:

• Prices expressed in cents as implied probabilities
• Ability to adjust or exit positions before settlement
• Markets focused on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a line

For Super Bowl MVP markets, the emphasis is on anticipating how the game will unfold and which player narrative will matter most when the award is decided.

Why consider the Super Bowl MVP market on Kalshi?

Kalshi offers several advantages compared to traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Positions are not locked in and can typically be sold before the final outcome
• Transparency: You trade against other users, with prices reflecting real-time market consensus
• Federal regulation: Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight, with defined rules and settlement criteria
• Availability: The platform is accessible in many regions where traditional sportsbooks are limited

Super Bowl MVP markets are especially appealing because they blend game performance with storytelling. Understanding how MVP voters think, which positions historically win the award, and how big moments shape perception can be just as important as predicting the final score.