As sportsbooks offer more player props than ever before for this year’s Super Bowl, we examine some of the top prop bets for Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers.
The second-year running back from Florida State was expected to miss the entire season when he tore his Achilles’ tendon during the preseason. He stunned everyone when he returned to action for the Rams in Week 18.
Akers was not fully utilized until Wild Card Weekend of the playoffs when he carried the ball 17 times for 55 yards against the Arizona Cardinals. During the Divisional Round against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Rams head coach Sean McVay heavily relied on Akers. He carried the ball 24 times for 48 yards, and fumbled twice, which nearly cost the Rams the game.
The number of carries for Akers decreased during the NFC Championship, as McVay gave more touches to Sony Michel. It is unclear what Akers’ role will be in the Super Bowl due to a new shoulder injury, Darrell Henderson Jr.’s potential return from injured reserve, and Michel’s ineffectiveness.
Here are the top player prop bets for Akers in Super Bowl 56 (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
What are Player Prop Bets?
Typically, player props include a specific number with a total, and the bettor must predict whether the prop will land Over or Under the projected line.
Prop bets are a fun way to get action on the game without necessarily needing to pick a side. They’re often a more sustainably profitable endeavor than betting on the game outcome.
SEE ALSO: Super Bowl Betting Guide
Cam Akers Super Bowl Player Prop Bets
- Player to commit first turnover: Akers (+1200 via Caesars Sportsbook) ★★
- Total rushing attempts: Under 16.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ★★★
- Akers alternate rushing yards: Under 49.5 (+200 via BetRivers) ★★★★
- Akers touchdown props: Fade ★★★
- Most rushing yards matchup – Akers vs. Mixon: Mixon (-106 via BetRivers) ★★★★
SEE ALSO: Rams vs. Bengals Picks
Akers Super Bowl Props
Player to commit first turnover: Akers (+1200)
Akers has lost three fumbles in his 291 career rushing attempts. Most recently, he fumbled twice against the Buccaneers in the Divisional Round
The Bengals defense ranked seventh among all teams with 17 forced fumbles in the regular season.
There is a prop at BetRivers, where Akers has a price of +450 to lose a fumble during the game. I find that prop to be very intriguing, but I would rather take my shot with the +1200 odds to have Akers commit the first turnover in the game.
Total rushing attempts: Under 16.5 (-105)
Akers is currently suffering from a shoulder injury and has not yet been able to practice ahead of the Super Bowl. He was given bell-cow carries last postseason, but the Rams also did not have Michel and had a different opinion of Henderson.
Akers exceeded 16.5 carries in only seven of his 19 career games. Despite fumbling twice in the Divisional Round, I would be willing to support Akers, if McVay did not decrease his carries from 24 to 13 in the NFC Championship. With Henderson likely returning for the Super Bowl, I believe Akers will fall short on his rushing attempts.
His highest price is at BetMGM where he is -105 to go Under 16.5 carries. DraftKings Sportsbook has the same total but the Under is juiced to -120.
Most rushing yards matchup – Akers vs. Mixon: Mixon (-106)
A strong argument can be made that Mixon is being overlooked in this position due to the assumption that the Bengals will be losing. While this may ultimately be the case, it is not for certain.
The Bengals leaned on Mixon to relieve some of the pressure on their offensive line in the AFC Championship Game. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor gave Mixon a number of first down carries and that trend should continue into the Super Bowl.
Akers has received the majority of the carries for the Rams but has not necessarily been effective. The best aspect of backing Akers has been his volume, but what will happen if he does not get carries in the Super Bowl? Mixon is the Bengals’ bell cow and will not yield carries to anyone else. This cannot be said for sure about Akers.
You can find the best price for this prop at BetRivers, where Mixon is -106 to win this matchup. At DraftKings and PointsBet, Mixon is juiced to -110 to defeat Akers in this rushing yards prop bet.
SEE ALSO: 56 Super Bowl Prop Bets
Akers touchdown props: Fade
McVay does not rely on Akers inside the 5-yard line, and he finished third on the team last season in red-zone carries inside the 5-yard line. Akers has carried the ball only twice within five yards of the goal line this season, and both times he was stuffed by the Buccaneers defense. When facing third and goal from inside the one-yard line, McVay elected to utilize Matthew Stafford’s QB sneak rather than give Akers a third chance.
Akers has scored three total touchdowns in 14 regular-season games, with two more rushing scores in five playoff contests. In the second year of his career, Akers has scored a touchdown in only 29.4% of his games in the NFL. With his anytime touchdown odds hovering around +115, he has an implied 46.51% probability of getting a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
Akers is currently a poor value at the market price of +115. With a lingering shoulder injury and an unclear picture of who will receive the bulk of the carries for the Rams, I am fading all of his touchdown props.
Top Akers Prop Bet
Akers alternate rushing yards: Under 49.5 (+200)
Akers has averaged 2.61 yards per carry since returning from an Achilles injury. If I am playing the Under on his rushing attempts, then going Under on his alternate rushing yards is a correlated play.
I believe Akers will be in the 10-12 range for rushing attempts. In order to exceed 49.5 yards on the ground, he would need to average 4.16 yards per carry on 12 attempts. I like my chances, as he has not averaged more than 3.69 yards per carry in any game this season.
I think this is the most effective way to fade Akers in the Super Bowl. My preference would be to take the +200 on alternate yards rather than the -105 on the Under for rushing attempts. In the event that the rushing attempts go Under, I find it hard to believe that you would not also cash a bet on the alternate yards line.
Where to Bet on the Super Bowl
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