Steelers vs. Vikings Prediction: Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Week 4 in Dublin

The Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers will battle in the NFL's first international series game of the season as I offer my Steelers vs. Vikings prediction, part of the NFL predictions for Week 4. 

The Vikings are the 2.5-point betting favorite, and I'm backing the Under in Sunday's game at Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland (9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network). 

My NFL picks also feature an Aaron Rodgers player prop after sourcing a rare, high-value outlier total. 

📊 Steelers vs. Vikings odds

Latest NFL odds updated live in real time.

🏈 Steelers vs. Vikings predictions

NFL expert picks for Week 4; odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Vikings -2.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 41 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Aaron Rodgers Under 214.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

✅ Steelers vs. Vikings expert pick

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬇️ Under 41 points (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The projected total is the second lowest of the Week 4 slate for good reason. The Vikings defense is ranked second-best in defensive DVOA. It is the top unit in terms of EPA per play (-0.27), ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars (-0.15) and Green Bay Packers (-0.13).  

Defensive coordinator Brian Flores' unit has allowed two touchdowns in the last two games, with the lone score conceded against the Cincinnati Bengals coming in the fourth quarter, when the game had long been decided.

It has also recovered five fumbles, the most in the NFL and one more than the Steelers. 

That special defense is facing a Pittsburgh Steelers team whose primary running back, Jaylen Warren, has been impacted by a knee injury. His recent injury update forced me to change my initial against-the-spread pick. He's been practicing in a limited capacity for most of the week, raising questions about how impactful he will be if he suits up.

The Steelers defense, meanwhile, showed significant improvement against the New England Patriots last week. At least in Week 3, it performed much better than its 23rd-ranked defensive DVOA. 

And while the wily and experienced Carson Wentz managed things expertly against a hapless Bengals team, aside from that game, he hasn't played any meaningful football in a few years.

I'm banking on that lack of game sharpness coming to the fore against a Steelers defense that is better than the early-season performances suggest.  

Caesars, BetMGM, and bet365 offer a total of 41, while the other best sports betting sites offer 40.5. I'm going with the slightly higher 41, with the -110 odds offered at BetMGM and Caesars. A winning $10 bet at that standard juice will profit $9.09. 

💰 Steelers vs. Vikings player prop bet

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️ Aaron Rodgers Under 214.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I'm taking advantage of the outlier offered by BetMGM, the only one of the best sports betting apps providing a total exceeding 204.5 yards. Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel have the total at 202.5.

Even with the potential of Rodgers having to throw more due to Warren's injury concern, I'm fading his passing total. Whether he has to pass more or not, Rodgers is facing a Vikings team with the second-best defensive passing DVOA and the best in terms of EPA per play.

Rodgers hit the Over on this total once in the first three games, which occurred against the New York Jets. The Jets have the third-worst defensive passing DVOA. 

The -115 odds at BetMGM imply a 53.49% probability, and a winning $10 bet will profit $8.70. 

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