Steelers vs. Bengals Prediction Tonight: Thursday Night Football Odds & TNF Picks

My Steelers vs. Bengals prediction expect a high-scoring affair tonight on Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video). My NFL picks target a total that continues to climb and a star wide receiver to maintain his red-hot form at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati as part of our NFL predictions for Week 7.

🏈 Steelers vs. Bengals prediction: Thursday Night Football

NFL expert picks for Thursday Night Football; NFL odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Steelers -5.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Over 42.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: DK Metcalf Over 56.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Steelers vs. Bengals?

For the Bengals to have a viable shot at covering the spread, Trey Hendrickson must play. By all accounts, he's struggling with a hip injury, which doesn't bode well on a short week. If he can't play, I'm backing the Steelers to cover as the 5.5-point betting favorite. 

Score prediction: Steelers 27, Bengals 20

✅ Steelers vs. Bengals best bet for TNF

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬆️ Over 42.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I backed the Bengals to cover in my early prediction, but that was predicated on a healthy Hendrickson being available.  

The Bengals have the fourth-lowest pressure percentage (16%) even with Hendrickson in the lineup. That should allow Rodgers, who has been sacked the sixth-fewest times (9) for QBs with at least five starts, enough time in the pocket to dissect a Bengals defense with the third-worst DVOA. 

Cincinnati's offense, meanwhile, showed signs of promise with the more calming presence of Joe Flacco under center, outscoring the Green Bay Packers 18-17 at Lambeau Field in the second half last week. 

The Bengals' two games at Paycor so far this season averaged 59.5 points. While I don't expect such a swollen total, I'm confident both teams will combine for at least 43 points, resulting in the Bengals' fifth Over in seven games. 

FanDuel is the only one of the best sports betting sites offering a lower total of 42.5, with the others at 43.5. FanDuel's -115 odds will provide an $8.70 profit. 

💰 Steelers vs. Bengals player prop bet for TNF

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ DK Metcalf Over 58.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Metcalf found his groove in the Steelers' offense in the last two games, with 95 receiving yards against the Cleveland Browns last week and 126 the previous week in London versus the Minnesota Vikings.

While he showed up somewhat unexpectedly on the Steelers' injury report, all signs point toward him being ready to play at full capacity on Thursday.

He also has a favorable matchup against the fifth-worst DVOA pass defense, one that is tied for the third-most yards against per pass attempt (7.6). Our Dustin Saracini also backs Metcalf with his Steelers vs. Bengals player props.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Parker Washington amassed 76 yards against the Bengals at Paycor, while the Detroit Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown followed that by tallying 100 yards. 

BetMGM has the lowest total (56.5 yards), offering -115 odds. FanDuel has its total set at  58.5 yards (-114), DraftKings is at 59.5 yards (-111), and bet365 has the highest total of 60 (+100).

I'm partial to the lower total at BetMGM, especially considering the minuscule ROI difference between it, FanDuel, and DraftKings. A winning $10 bet at BetMGM would profit $8.70.

🎟️ Steelers vs. Bengals most-bet props

Here are the top props bettors are favoring in the hours before kickoff, via BetMGM.

📊 Steelers vs. Bengals odds: Thursday Night Football

Latest Thursday Night Football odds updated live in real time.

📈 Steelers vs. Bengals betting insights

Betting insights via BetMGM:

• 62% of bets and 41% of money is on the Steelers to win by 5.5 points
• 84% of money is on the Over of 44.5 points after it opened at 42.5

📺 How to watch Thursday Night Football: Steelers vs. Bengals

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 16
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
• TV: Prime Video