Steelers vs. Dolphins Picks, Predictions Week 7: Will Pittsburgh Pull Off a Second Straight Upset?
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins are each trying to nurse quarterbacks back to health in advance of their Sunday Night Football Week 7 matchup. Read on for our Steelers-Dolphins picks.
Miami looks like it will have starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back after missing the last two games with a concussion. Meanwhile, Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky relieved an injured Kenny Pickett and led the Steelers to a massive upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game where they were the largest home underdogs in 40 seasons. Pickett practiced in full this week but is still awaiting concussion protocol clearance in time to suit up Sunday.
Check out all of our top NFL picks for Week 7, as well as our best bets!
Here are our Steelers-Dolphins NFL Week 7 picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Steelers vs. Dolphins Game Info
- Date: Sunday, October 23, 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Weather: 83 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, 10-mph NNE wind
Steelers vs. Dolphins Odds
Steelers vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis
The point spread finally budged off the key number of Miami -7, moving to -7.5. The Dolphins have received 74% of the tickets and 77% of the cash.
The O/U opened at 45 and was bet down as low as 44 before rising back to a week-long high of 45.5. The betting splits have reflected that move, as the Over has attracted 47% of the bets and 63% of the handle.
Check out our Sunday Night Football prop picks.
Steelers vs. Dolphins Picks
- Spread: Steelers +7.5 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★★
- Over/Under: Under 44.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★
- Player Prop: Diontae Johnson Over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★
Steelers vs. Dolphins ATS Pick
Steelers +7.5 (-110) ★★★★
Not many coaches better prepare their teams as underdogs than Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin. Tomlin’s teams are 45-26-3 ATS as underdogs and have won more than half (38 of 74) of those games outright. In his tenure as Steelers head coach, they're the only team with an over .500 underdog record.
Pittsburgh’s win over Tampa was its first without healthy linebacker T.J. Watt, as it had been 0-8 in games he hadn't played since being drafted in 2017. However, the difference this time was protecting the ball, as the Steelers’ two QBs combined for a 2-0 TD-INT ratio after posting a 2-6 TD-INT ratio during a 1-4 start.
A big wild card is former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores, who worked as a Steelers defensive assistant and linebackers coach. Flores clearly had imprints on last week’s game with his knowledge of Bucs QB Tom Brady and will likely devise a defensive game plan to neutralize Pickett or Trubisky.
Steelers vs. Dolphins O/U Pick
Under 44.5 (-110) ★★
Before his injury, Tagovailoa’s 98 QBR, 66 completion percentage, and 15.2 yards per attempt all ranked an NFL first. Additionally, his 8-2 TD-INT ratio is a vast improvement over backup quarterbacks Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson (0-4 TD-INT). The two have a 52 and 38 QBR, 62 and 56 completion percentage, and 8.7 and 5.5 yards per attempt, respectively.
Miami’s wide receivers, most notably Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, totaled 925 receiving yards with Tagovailoa under center the first three weeks (second in the NFL). While the duo have the edge over Pittsburgh’s injury-depleted secondary, Tua’s mental state and confidence in the pocket are a concern, after admittedly being knocked unconscious when he suffered his injury.
The Dolphins' offense should be better than the 17 or fewer points it scored in all three matchups during a three-game losing streak, but it may take time for Tagovailoa’s confidence to grow to the level it was at this season's start.
Steelers vs. Dolphins Prop Pick
Johnson Over 59.5 receiving yards (-115) ★★★
Miami’s cornerback Xavien Howard will likely shadow Pittsburgh wideout Diontae Johnson in this game. Howard has been heavily beatable this year, allowing an average of 103.3 receiving yards to WRs Rashod Bateman, Stefon Diggs, Tee Higgins, and Justin Jefferson as the primary man in coverage.
For those fantasy football pundits, the Dolphins allowed the third-most fantasy points over expected to opposing wide receivers and the fourth-most to perimeter receivers. As a result, look for Johnson to be a focal point of the Steelers' passing offense.
Where to Bet on Steelers vs. Dolphins Picks
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Steelers-Dolphins picks made 10/22/2022 at 7:20 a.m. ET
