NFL Staff Picks & Expert Predictions Week 1: Best Bets and Player Props This Week
Our NFL expert picks and staff predictions for Week 1 are covering five games from the afternoon slate, with NFL picks on Buccaneers vs. Falcons, Bengals vs. Browns, Raiders vs. Patriots, 49ers vs. Seahawks, and Texans vs. Rams.
Read on for our comprehensive NFL predictions.
Week 1 NFL staff picks
NFL picks made by Gabe Henderson, Gary Pearson, and Sean Tomlinson based on the best NFL odds for Week 1.
| Game | Gabe Henderson | Gary Pearson | Sean Tomlinson |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers vs. Falcons | Over 47 (-110 via Caesars) | Over 47 (-110 via Caesars) | Falcons +2.5 (-115 via Caesars) |
| Bengals vs. Browns | Bengals -5 (-110 via Caesars) | Bengals -5 (-110 via Caesars) | Over 48 (-110 via Caesars) |
| Raiders vs. Patriots | Under 44 (-110 via Caesars) | Patriots ML (-138 via FanDuel) | Raiders ML (+130 via DraftKings) |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | 49ers -2.5 (-106 via FanDuel) | Seahawks +2.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | Seahawks +2.5 (-108 via DraftKings) |
| Texans vs. Rams | Texans +3 (-110 via DraftKings) | Texan +3 (-110 via DraftKings) | Texans ML (+136 via DraftKings) |
We're covering three divisional rivalries, with the Atlanta Falcons hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Cleveland Browns hosting the Cincinnati Bengals, and the San Francisco 49ers visiting the Seattle Seahawks.
The Las Vegas Raiders also visit the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans meet up with the Los Angeles Rams.
Expert NFL game picks
Gabe Henderson: Texans +3 (-110)
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans faced Rams boss Sean McVay five times during his two-year tenure as the defensive coordinator in San Francisco. The 49ers were 4-1 straight up in those games against the Rams, with the latter managing just over 15 points per game.
Houston boasts one of football’s most ferocious defenses, largely thanks to an abundance of young talent and Ryans’ tutelage. I like the Texans to cover as field-goal underdogs - I’m not bold enough to predict an outright win - after they went 5-3 ATS in similar spots last season, according to the NFL betting trends for Week 1.
Gary Pearson: Buccaneers vs. Falcons Over 47 (-110)
The Falcons and Buccaneers had the joint-second and fifth-best offenses last season, via PFF.
Meanwhile, Atlanta had the 29th-ranked defensive DVOA. The Falcons have made some notable defensive improvements, particularly in their pass rush, but it will take time for these changes to manifest. Neither team should have trouble moving the ball in the idyllic environment of Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Sean Tomlinson: Falcons +2.5 (-115)
There are plenty of uncertainties looming over the Falcons heading into a new season, including quarterback Michael Penix Jr., as he gets set to make only his fourth career start.
However, Penix gets a soft landing spot during his first season as the Week 1 starter, as he’ll face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary that was regularly torched last year while allowing 243.9 passing yards per game (29th).
NFL expert picks Week 1
Here are some of our other NFL expert picks this week:
- Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- NFL AI predictions
- NFL moneyline picks
- NFL player props Week 1
- Best NFL long-shot parlay
- NFL survivor picks
- NFL upset picks
Best NFL player prop bets
Gabe Henderson: Tee Higgins anytime touchdown (+120)
Tee Higgins hauled in a touchdown in both matchups against the Browns last year, bringing his career tally to four across seven starts against Cleveland. I expect QB Joe Burrow and Co. to be firing on all cylinders after extra reps in preseason, especially against a bad Browns team.
While Higgins’ has just one touchdown in season openers during his five-year career, the plus sign next to this play is easing my concerns. Bet this prop at DraftKings, which offers a $12 yield on a $10 wager, and see Esten McLaren's anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Week 1.
Gary Pearson: Ja’Marr Chase Over 84.5 receiving yards (-114)
Ja’Marr Chase had no off-field distractions entering the season, and that should be problematic for a Browns secondary that had the third-worst coverage unit last season, according to PFF.
Chase struggled out of the gate last year, surpassing this total in just two of the first nine games. He finished the season by amassing at least 85 receiving yards in seven of the final eight contests, including six in a row to cap off the campaign. I expect him to start where he left off.
Sean Tomlinson: Matthew Stafford Under 240.5 passing yards (-114)
Injury concerns linger significantly over a 37-year-old Matthew Stafford who’s had to endure major back issues throughout the offseason, resulting in missing most of training camp.
There is no easy matchup for such a quarterback who will now surely be even less mobile. But a ferocious Texans pass rush featuring Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter (who combined for 23 sacks last year) is an especially daunting challenge.
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