Saints vs. Titans Week 10 Picks: Tennessee Gets 6th Straight Cover, Victory

The New Orleans Saints make only their fourth-ever trip to Nashville on Sunday as they visit the Tennessee Titans in Week 10. Both clubs recently lost vital offensive players to season-ending injuries.

Both New Orleans' Sean Payton and Tennessee's Mike Vrabel deserve NFL Coach of the Year consideration if they lead their teams to the playoffs. Both were expected to be in the postseason this winter, but that was before the Saints lost starting quarterback Jameis Winston for the season in Week 8 and the Titans lost the NFL's best running back, Derrick Henry, to a likely season-ending injury.

The Titans (7-2) lead the AFC South by three games over second-place Indianapolis and New Orleans (5-3) sits sixth in the NFC and holds the tiebreaker over the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 10 matchup between the Saints and Titans (Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Saints vs. Titans Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 14, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TNWeather: mostly sunny, high of 56 degrees

Saints vs. Titans Odds Analysis

Editor's Note: Alvin Kamara has been ruled out for this game, the team announced Friday.

I will never bet an NFL (and college football) line on three points and would rather take an alternate line. Thus, I would wait to wager this game to see if it gets to 3.5 or 2.5, though 3.5 seems unlikely as it opened at Titans -2.5 and about 70 percent of spread action thus far is on the home team.

The total has fallen from 45 to 44.5 points even though the Over is taking about a 57-percent lean. When these teams met two years ago in Nashville, the total closed at 49 and the game went Over by 17 points.

Saints vs. Titans Betting Picks

Titans -3 (would buy down to -2.5) ??Under 44.5 points ??

SEE ALSO: Bills vs. Jets Week 10 Picks

Saints vs. Titans Predictions

Titans -3 (-110)

One reason I'm on the Titans here is Saints running back Alvin Kamara might be in jeopardy of missing the game. The Saints worked out a few running backs early this week amid speculation that Kamara might be hurt. If he misses the game, it would be a massive loss for New Orleans.

Not only does Kamara lead the team in rushing with 530 yards and three touchdowns, he's the team's leading receiver and shares the team lead with four touchdown catches. His 358 career receptions are tied with Roger Craig for the most by a running back in his first five seasons all-time. The Saints did recently bring back Mark Ingram as a backup.

New Orleans is 3-0 straight up and against the spread this season as an underdog and won each by at least nine points. However, quarterback Trevor Siemian didn't start any of those games and is 2-8 ATS in his past 10 road starts.

The Titans have won and covered five straight games since being upset by the New York Jets in Week 4. In fact, Tennessee enters having won four straight games against teams that made the playoffs last season. Just one club has done something like that in five straight games: The 2003 Philadelphia Eagles. Could this be a letdown game for the Titans? We doubt it.

Under 45 points (-110)

This total lean is largely due to having no faith in Siemian and the potential unavailability of Kamara.

I also have little faith in the Tennessee run game against a stout New Orleans defense. In their first game without Derrick Henry last week, the Titans averaged 2.7 yards per rush in an upset of the Los Angeles Rams - the worst average for the team in any game since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starter. In Weeks 1-8, the Titans averaged 4.5 yards per rush.

On the bright side, the Tennessee defense played its best game of the year with five sacks, including a career-high three from Jeffrey Simmons. Los Angeles had been allowing one sack per game. The Titans got 18 pressures on Matthew Stafford.

Tennessee could see the return of cornerback Kristian Fulton as he has been designated to return to practice from injured reserve, but the team technically has three weeks to put him on the active roster. Fulton had 16 tackles, an interception, and six passes defensed in his first five games and had established himself as the team's No. 1 cornerback.

The Under is 4-1 in the Saints' past five on the road and 4-1 in the Titans' past five at home.

SEE ALSO: Browns vs. Patriots Week 10 Picks

Picks made 11/10/2021 at 4:55 p.m. ET