Chargers vs. Ravens Prediction: Week 10 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 16)
Both the Chargers' and Ravens' seasons have been considered disappointments, but the dynamics of Monday's matchup, with Baltimore trading for quarterback Jacoby Brissett, still make it compelling. My Chargers vs. Ravens prediction explains why the road underdog has its best chance of securing its first cover of the season.
Kickoff from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN). The Ravens are a 4.5-point betting favorite, and the total sits at 38.5.
Chargers vs. Ravens picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 10 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Chargers +4.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
| Over 38.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 13 at 10:30 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.82 units
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Chargers vs. Ravens prediction & best bet
Chargers +4.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Not only is Los Angeles the only remaining winless team, it is the only team that hasn’t covered a game all season. I expect that to change when facing Baltimore’s fourth different starting quarterback, as the Chargers are 12-2 ATS against backup quarterbacks since 2020 (the second-best ATS record of any team in that span).
The Ravens are the perfect opponent for the Chargers to gain offensive momentum against. While Los Angeles ranks last in scoring and total touchdowns, Baltimore has allowed 34.7 points per game over the last three weeks and 21-plus in seven games (tied with the Raiders for the third-most).
Some will say Baltimore has an edge as head coach Jesse Minter served as Los Angeles’ defensive coordinator last year. But his knowledge of Jim Harbaugh’s system is mitigated with Justin Herbert playing in an entirely new scheme under offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel.
📡 SBR Edge: Baltimore's home ATS struggles
The Ravens haven't covered the spread in eight straight home games and have failed to do so by an average of 9.7 points per game. That is the longest home ATS losing streak in franchise history, and Baltimore is 2-11 ATS at home since the start of last season.
Baltimore's lack of explosive pass plays
It is no secret that Baltimore’s best offensive weapon is running back Derrick Henry. But Henry has been bottled up of late (16.5 touches per game has resulted in just 7.6 fantasy points over the last four weeks) as a lack of a passing game hasn’t opened up running lanes.
Baltimore has six pass plays of 20-plus yards over the last five weeks, which is tied for the fewest in the league. That is a big reason it brought in Jacoby Brissett, but it’s a big ask to expect Brissett to have this offense like it does under Lamar Jackson with just a week to get acclimated to the new system.
There is not a proven track record of quarterbacks outside of Jackson finding success with the Ravens. Under Jackson, Baltimore averaged 6.9 yards per play, logged a plus-34.4 EPA, and 86 Total QBR. With Tyler Huntley, the Ravens averaged 4.8 yards per play, had a minus-20.3 EPA, and 46 Total QBR. It was even worse under Joe Fagnano with 3.8 yards per play, a minus-27.9 EPA, and 8 Total QBR.
Play to: +3.5 (-105)
Score prediction: Ravens 21, Chargers 20
Live Chargers vs. Ravens odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Chargers vs. Ravens matchup page.
Chargers vs. Ravens opening odds
- Moneyline: Chargers +120 | Ravens -145
- Spread: Chargers +2.5 (-105) | Ravens -2.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (-110) | Under 38.5 (-108)
Chargers vs. Ravens weather
Temperatures will be in the high 40s with just a 4% chance of precipitation and winds light at 8 mph NW.
Latest Chargers vs. Ravens injuries
How to watch Chargers vs. Ravens: Week 10
- Date: Monday, Nov. 16
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN, Fubo
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