NBA Best Bets & Expert Picks Today: Basketball Predictions for Sunday, Nov. 15
I'm up 7.07 units with a 5.3% ROI this season, and I'm looking to keep trending upward with my NBA best bets today.
I feature a player prop in Lakers vs. Suns, which tips off at 4 p.m. ET, followed by two bets in Hawks vs. Bucks, with tipoff set for 8 p.m. ET.
NBA best bets: Player props & ATS picks today (Nov. 15)
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| Matchup | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Lakers vs. Suns | Walker Kessler Over 10.5 rebounds (-135 via DraftKings) | 1.35 units to profit 1 unit |
| Hawks vs. Bucks | Bucks +7.5 (+100 via Pinnacle) | 1 unit to profit 1 unit |
| Jalen Johnson Over 9.5 rebounds (-114 via Pinnacle) | 1.14 units to profit 1 unit |
Picks submitted: Nov. 15 at 10:48 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 3.49 units | Max profit: 3 units
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Best NBA bet today
Lakers vs. Suns prediction: Walker Kessler Over 10.5 rebounds (-135)
Walker Kessler is averaging 12.4 rebounds per game across seven games in November, and he has a great matchup to cash another Over today.
The Suns rank last in the NBA with a 45.2% rebounding percentage. We just cashed an Over against Phoenix on Thursday when we played Hornets forward Moussa Diabate Over 8.5 rebounds (-115). He finished with 13 boards.
The Suns' starting frontcourt consists of Oso Ighodaro, who averages just 5.1 rebounds per game, and 6-foot-7 Miles Bridges. Kessler should face very little resistance when boxing out today.
Play to: Over 10.5 (-147) or Over 11.5 (+107)
⏰️ Set your alarm: Lakers vs. Suns
- Tip: 4 p.m. ET
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
- How to watch: NBA League Pass
More NBA picks & player props for Sunday
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Hawks vs. Bucks prediction: Bucks +7.5 (+100)
No one is pretending that the Bucks are good, but are they bad enough to be catching 7.5 points at home to the Hawks today?
I believe the market is undervaluing the Bucks in this spot. Milwaukee has played the third-hardest strength of schedule this season, per Power Rankings Guru, while the Hawks have played the fifth-easiest so far.
Atlanta has lost straight up in each of its last two games, both as a favorite, and I'm not convinced it should be laying 7.5 on the road against a Bucks team that has exceeded expectations in its last two games.
Play to: +7.5 (-107)
Jalen Johnson Over 9.5 rebounds (-114)
This is one of those bets where you have to ignore those prop-tracking websites that use bar charts to predict good bets (they're all noisy anyway).
Jalen Johnson has only gone over this line twice this season, but he likely will grab 10 or more rebounds due to his matchup tonight. The Bucks rank 28th in the NBA with a 47.3% rebounding percentage. Their starting frontcourt consists of Kyle Kuzma, who averages just 5.2 rebounds per game, and Myles Turner, the 44th-ranked rebounder out of 50 starters above 6-foot-10 (10.1% rebounding percentage).
Don't overreact to Johnson's game log.
Play to: Over 9.5 (-123)
⏰️ Set your alarm: Hawks vs. Bucks
- Tip: 8 p.m. ET
- Venue: Fiserv Forum
- How to watch: NBA League Pass
My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks have been tracked since Oct. 20.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 56-45-1 | +7.07 units | 5.3% |
| Moneyline | 1-0 | +2 units | 102% |
| Player prop | 29-21-1 | +6.94 units | 13.1% |
| Spread | 23-22 | -2.75 units | -3.8% |
| Total | 3-2 | +0.88 units | 20.3% |
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