Receiving Yards Total Cheat Sheet: Tee Higgins Stands Out for Season Long Receiving Prop
Last season, Cooper Kupp accumulated 1,947 receiving yards and was named the NFL Offensive Player of the Year. We have created a small cheat sheet containing all of this year's receiving yardage odds.
Several of our top-rated sportsbooks have posted season-long totals on player props in advance of the NFL season. To see if there are any significant gaps between the projections and the betting markets, I decided to cross-reference these totals with the projections from Fantasy Pros, ESPN, and Pro Football Focus. To help the sportsbooks combat potential injuries, many of the projections will be higher than the totals.
The following are some of the players who stand out to me after comparing their projections to their player prop totals for the upcoming season.
2022 NFL Receiving Yards Lines
| Players | Projections via Fantasy Pros, ESPN and PFF | Total via DraftKings Sportsbook | Difference |
| Justin Jefferson | 1,488 | 1350.5 | +137.5 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1,487 | 1300.5 | +186.5 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1,379 | 1250.5 | +128.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1,231 | 1175.5 | +55.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1,233 | 1200.5 | +32.5 |
| Mike Evans | 1,132 | 1025.5 | +106.5 |
| Davante Adams | 1,238 | 1200.5 | +37.5 |
| D.J. Moore | 1,174 | 1075.5 | +98.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1,145 | 1025.5 | +119.5 |
| Tee Higgins | 1,157 | 975.5 | +181.5 |
| A.J. Brown | 1,114 | 1025.5 | +88.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1,051 | 950.5 | +100.5 |
| Gabriel Davis | 997 | 875.5 | +121.5 |
| Mike Williams | 1,051 | 1000.5 | +50.5 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1,080 | 1000.5 | +79.5 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1,074 | 950.5 | +123.5 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 1,085 | 1025.5 | +59.5 |
| Tyler Lockett | 996 | 850.5 | +145.5 |
| Keenan Allen | 1,048 | 1050.5 | -2.5 |
| Diontae Johnson | 972 | 1000.5 | -28.5 |
| Adam Thielen | 827 | 750.5 | +76.5 |
| Allen Robinson II | 906 | 825.5 | +80.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 896 | 850.5 | +45.5 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 799 | 775.5 | +23.5 |
| Christian Kirk | 882 | 825.5 | +56.5 |
| Chris Olave | 811 | 719.5 | +91.5 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1,029 | 950.5 | +78.5 |
| Dallas Goedert | 752 | 700.5 | +51.5 |
| Dalton Schultz | 746 | 725.5 | +20.5 |
| Dawson Knox | 585 | 550.5 | +34.5 |
| DeVonta Smith | 880 | 875.5 | +4.5 |
| DeVante Parker | 666 | 695.5 | -29.5 |
| Elijah Moore | 885 | 800.5 | +84.5 |
| George Kittle | 927 | 825.5 | +101.5 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 848 | 800.5 | +47.5 |
| Jahan Dotson | 757 | 611.5 | +145.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 934 | 925.5 | +8.5 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 971 | 905.5 | +65.5 |
| JuJu Smith- Schuster | 792 | 750.5 | +41.5 |
| Julio Jones | 543 | 550.5 | -7.5 |
| Mark Andrews | 1,120 | 1000.5 | +119.5 |
| Michael Thomas | 903 | 800.5 | +102.5 |
| Rashod Bateman | 943 | 850.5 | +92.5 |
| Robert Woods | 804 | 800.5 | +3.5 |
| Skyy Moore | 650 | 680.5 | -30.5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 663 | 700.5 | -37.5 |
| Travis Kelce | 1,187 | 1,100.5 | +86.5 |
| Tyler Boyd | 765 | 795.5 | -30.5 |
| Zach Ertz | 615 | 625.5 | -10.5 |
| Noah Fant | 613 | 580.5 | +32.5 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 528 | 555.5 | -27.5 |
Total Receiving Yards: Best Bets
- Higgins Over 1000.5 yards (-112 via FanDuel)
- Johnson Under 1000.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings)
Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals: Over 1000.5 yards (-112 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
It is clear that there is a substantial gap between Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins' projections and his betting total for receiving yards, 181.5 yards to be exact. Even though the total is lower at DraftKings Sportsbook (975.5 yards), I will be placing this bet at FanDuel, where it is slightly higher at 1000.5 yards. The Over at DraftKings is trading at -135 and I do not believe that the additional 23 cents of juice is worth the extra 25 yards.
Why am I betting the Over on Higgins? You are seeing a situation where the markets are drawing much more attention to Ja'Marr Chase than to Higgins, resulting in a lower total on the more veteran receiver.
Last season, Higgins managed to accumulate 1,091 yards receiving despite only playing in 14 of a possible 17 games. Between the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl, Higgins saw 17 targets and racked up 203 yards receiving. Higgins is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but he does not receive the same level of media coverage as his teammate and other high-profile receivers.
Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 1000.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings)
There is a lot to consider here in regard to Diontae Johnson's total, and I believe this number will be adjusted to a lower total in the near future. At FanDuel, Johnson's betting total is posted at 950.5 yards, and I have seen a couple of other sportsbooks with a heavy juice to the Under.
As everyone hypes George Pickens' potential impact as a rookie, we rarely take a second to consider where else Pickens may have an impact from a betting perspective. Pickens would steal a tremendous amount of targets from Johnson if he is as good as we believe he may be.
It is also important to note that Johnson accumulated all of these statistics with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, which leaves some uncertainty that Mitchell Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, or Kenny Pickett will target him in the same way.
As well as the projections indicating that Johnson will fall under this total, there are numerous narratives surrounding the veteran that suggest this may be a good bet. I intend to place an Under 1000.5 bet at DraftKings on Johnson's receiving prop.
Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings: 1350.5 yards (-110/-110 via DraftKings)
Based on what has been happening at the Minnesota Vikings' training camp, you would expect Justin Jefferson to go for 3,000 yards with 30 touchdowns this season. Minnesota has high expectations for Jefferson following the addition of head coach Kevin O'Connell.
Even with all the hype surrounding Jefferson, I was fascinated to see his player prop come in 137.5 yards below his projections. It would be expected that the line would be much closer to Jefferson's projections given the amount of buzz surrounding the player.
Personally, I am not betting the Over on Jefferson's receiving yards, but it is a good sign for anyone who does.
Where to Bet on NFL Receiving Yards Props
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM
SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
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