NFL Conference Championship Prop Picks, Predictions: How Much Will Jalen Hurts Run?
Betting on the NFL Playoffs can be profitable if you take a closer look at the games within the games. Here are our top prop picks for the conference championship games based on the best NFL odds.
A blockbuster NFL Conference Championship Sunday looms before us with two extremely compelling matchups.
The action kicks off on Sunday afternoon as the San Francisco 49ers battle the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. The AFC Championship will follow in primetime as the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs meet in a rematch of last year’s conference title game.
Of course, there is no shortage of ways for bettors to have action on both conference championship games this weekend. While standard game lines and totals are always intriguing, looking for favorable angles on NFL player props could be one of the best ways to turn a profit.
Here are our best Saturday NFL Conference Championship player prop picks spanning both the 49ers vs. Eagles and Bengals vs. Chiefs playoff games (odds via PointsBet and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
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NFL Conference Championship Player Prop Picks
- Jauan Jennings Under 2.5 receptions (-180 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jalen Hurts Under 10.5 rushing attempts (-125 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Joe Mixon Over 58.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL Playoffs Schedule and Odds for Conference Championship Weekend
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NFL Conference Championship Player Props
Jauan Jennings Under 2.5 receptions (-180 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
There were only three instances all season in which 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings finished with more than two receptions in a game. The former seventh round draft pick has carved out a solid niche role within the offense. However, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, it’s highly unlikely that the Niners will stray from their top-tier weapons, of which there are several.
The main reason why Brock Purdy has been able to step in at quarterback and perform at such a high level is the wealth of talent that surrounds him. From Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco has no shortage of playmakers. Throw in Elijah Mitchell, and Jennings is at best the fifth or sixth option in this loaded offense. In five career playoff games to date, he has only finished with more than two receptions once.
Naturally, oddsmakers have Jennings’ total receptions prop juiced heavily to the Under at 2.5. Compared to other prices in the market that are as high as -200, PointsBet’s -180 odds aren’t too shabby. A few books even have this prop line listed at 1.5.
Jalen Hurts Under 10.5 rushing attempts (-125 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Last week, we anticipated that Jalen Hurts would surpass his rushing attempts prop total largely due to the fact that the Eagles were facing a Giants defense that was one of the worst in the NFL against the run. This week’s NFC Championship Game matchup is a completely different situation. The 49ers allowed the fewest rushing yards of any team in the league this season. They also ranked second in adjusted efficiency against the run according to Football Outsiders.
Despite the fact that the Eagles’ rushing attack is clearly facing a tougher task, Hurts’ rushing attempts prop line is actually higher than it was a week ago. For all of the attention Hurts’ rushing abilities garner, he has actually only finished with more than nine attempts once in his last five games and only three times since Week 5 of the regular season.
Given that San Francisco’s secondary is the weak link of the defense, Hurts figures to prioritize making plays through the air as opposed to on the ground in Sunday’s matchup. The betting value on this prop at PointsBet also can't be ignored. The price is incredibly cheap compared to other shops listing the line at 10.5. Several others are a full attempt lower at 9.5.
Joe Mixon Over 58.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
When the Bengals and Chiefs got together during the regular season, Joe Mixon was notably absent due to injury. That won’t be the case in the AFC Championship Game. For all of the concerns that were voiced regarding Cincinnati’s banged-up offensive line, the unit more than held its own against the Buffalo Bills in last week’s Divisional Round.
Despite the fact that Mixon didn’t play in the early-December clash against Kansas City, the Bengals’ ground game still put together a terrific performance. Fellow Oklahoma alum Samaje Perine led the backfield and surpassed the 100-yard mark with an average of 5.0 yards per carry. Even Joe Burrow ran for 46 yards and will be a compelling prop selection to exceed his own rushing yardage total again in the AFC Championship.
Defensively, the Chiefs have been hit or miss against the run all season. With the Bengals’ star-studded receiving corps requiring so much attention, Mixon should see plenty of daylight on the ground. His rushing yardage prop is listed as high as 60.5 at other sportsbooks in the market.
NFL Conference Championship player prop picks made 01/27/2023 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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