NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6 ATS Predictions & Best Bets for Every Game

My NFL picks against the spread for Week 6 look to rebound from a disappointing and frankly wacky week, where I finished with a 6-8 record. 

The ongoings in Arizona, where Emari Demercado inexplicably dropped the ball at the goal line on what should have been a guaranteed touchdown, perfectly sum up last week.

My ATS NFL picks, part of the NFL predictions for Week 6, are 45-33 overall, as I look forward to a more fruitful week. 

🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 6 ATS predictions

NFL picks against the spread based on the latest NFL odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best Week 6 ATS picks

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🪖 Patriots (-3.5) vs. Saints ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I'm surprised the New England Patriots aren't more decisive favorites.

Head coach Mike Vrabel's team was superb against Buffalo, holding the high-powered Bills to 20 points, the second time since the start of last season that Josh Allen's team failed to score 30 points at home. 

The Patriots will face a run-heavy New Orleans attack, which should suit New England's eighth-best defensive DVOA against the run.

Saints' quarterback Spencer Rattler won his first game in 11 starts last week. However, that victory was more a result of the New York Giants' thinking that Christmas had arrived early, as they turned the ball over five times.

Meanwhile, Patriots' QB Drake Maye joined Tom Brady as the only two players with at least 200 passing yards, an above 70% completion rate, and 100+ passer rating in four straight games. 

Of our best sports betting sites, BetMGM's -110 odds represent the best value, and a winning $10 bet will profit $9.09. The odds range from -110 to -115, with the latter offered at DraftKings and FanDuel. 

🏗️  Steelers (-4.5) vs. Browns ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sometimes, bye weeks are an unwanted momentum killer. That's not the case for Pittsburgh, though, as rest is always best for an aging Aaron Rodgers and key injured starters Joey Porter Jr. and Alex Highsmith. 

Porter and Highsmith are expected to return to the lineup, which should make life immeasurably more challenging for Browns' rookie QB Dillon Gabriel, who is facing the daunting prospect of his first start on enemy terrain. 

While the Browns' second-ranked defense, in terms of DVOA, will cause issues for Rodgers and Co., I expect things to be much more problematic for Gabriel against an opportunistic Steelers' defense that created eight turnovers in the last two games. 

While the offense looked better for Cleveland with Gabriel under center, it still hasn't scored more than 17 points. DraftKings is the only one of the sports betting apps still offering -4.5. Like T.J. Watt on Gabriel, jump on it while you still have the chance. 

🐴 Colts (-6.5) vs. Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It will take me a long time to get over the Cardinals' infamous implosion last week, where they inexcusably threw away a 21-6 lead against one of the worst teams in football.

Their frailty and inconsistency shone through, which won't fly against an Indianapolis Colts team with the second-best offensive DVOA and best EPA per play. Two of their three victories at Lucas Oil Stadium came by an average of 29.5 points.

The visitors, meanwhile, have the 24th-ranked offensive DVOA and 26th-ranked offense at PFF. I can't see Kyler Murray and his offense going toe-to-toe against the resurgent Daniel Jones, who offers an intriguing NFL MVP odds outsider play and is among the most clutch QBs. 

At -105, DraftKings and FanDuel offer the best value. Those odds imply a 51.22% probability, and a winning $10 bet will profit $9.52. 

❓ NFL picks against the spread FAQs

What are the best NFL ATS picks this week?

My best NFL ATS picks are: Colts (-6.5), Steelers (-4.5), and Patriots (-3.5)

What does the ATS mean in NFL?

ATS in NFL betting stands for “against the spread.” It refers to how often a team covers the point spread in its games. Bettors use ATS records to track performance relative to expectations, not just wins and losses.

What does against the spread mean?

Against the spread (ATS) betting means wagering on whether a team will cover the point spread set by oddsmakers - not just win the game. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.