NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4 Best Bets & ATS Predictions for Every Game

I had a 9-7 Week 3 record in my NFL picks against the spread as I turn my attention to Week 4, providing predictions on all 16 games. 

Before closing the chapter on Week 3, I'll profess my disdain for two brutal beats. Cue the world's tiniest violin as I had the Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5). Need I say more? 

Despite those weird and wacky occurrences, my ATS record through three weeks is 28-20. The NFL picks below complement our NFL predictions for Week 4. 

🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 4 ATS predictions

NFL picks against the spread based on the latest NFL odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best Week 4 ATS picks

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🟢 Seahawks (+1.5) vs. Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I'm doubling down on Seattle as I also backed them in my Seahawks vs. Cardinals prediction. 

Mike Macdonald's team would probably be 3-0 had Sam Darnold not coughed up the ball at the death in the opener against San Francisco. With the added luxury of resting some key players in their walloping of the New Orleans Saints, the Seahawks should be the slightly fresher team. 

While the status of running back Zach Charbonnet hasn't been confirmed, optimism pervades the Seahawks camp after he was upgraded to a full participant on Monday.

The Cardinals' offense was already struggling before James Conner's devastating season-ending injury. They have the 14th-ranked unit at PFF despite a favorable first two games against Carolina and New Orleans.

Contrastingly, the Seahawks have the fifth-ranked offense and the eighth-ranked defense. DraftKings and FanDuel have the Seahawks at +1.5, but the former offers the best odds (-118). 

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⚡️ Chargers (-6) vs. Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you've been tailing my picks early enough in the week, you'll have cashed three straight Chargers picks. Unless you've been hiding out in a basement with no internet coverage, you'll also know that Justin Herbert is the most talked-about player in the NFL right now.

His MVP odds, reflecting the immense hype, improved to third-shortest after overcoming his team's offensive line personnel issues and a seven-point fourth-quarter deficit in the win over the Denver Broncos.

Meanwhile, I've never had less faith in Russell Wilson, and neither have G-Men fans, given the resounding calls for him to be replaced by rookie Jaxson Dart.

That impending quarterback change could occur as soon as this week.

But even if head coach Brian Daboll makes the change immediately, which he should without hesitation, I still like the Chargers' chances of covering. Dart will need time to adjust to life in the NFL, and rookie signal-callers rarely fare well in their debut. 

In addition, the Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 regular-season games at MetLife. Most of the best sports betting sites have the Chargers at -6, all of which offer -110 odds. A winning $10 bet will yield a $9.09 profit. 

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🐎 Broncos (-7) vs. Bengals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Even before his woeful outing in Minnesota, I couldn't get behind Jake Browning. Despite not even playing two games, the Bengals backup QB has thrown more interceptions than anyone else (5). And I won't be overly concerned if they pivot to third-string Brett Rypien. 

Making matters worse, Cincinnati's defense was ripped apart by Carson Wentz, who hasn't played any meaningful football in years. The Bengals now face the daunting prospect of facing a Broncos team that suffered consecutive walk-off defeats. 

Head coach Sean Payton will have his troops ready to rock in the Mile High City, where the Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their previous nine regular-season home games. 

At -110, BetMGM offers the best price, marginally better than DraftKings (-112) and Caesars (-115).

❓ NFL picks against the spread FAQs

What are the best NFL ATS picks this week?

My best ATS picks for Week 4 are: Chargers (-6), Broncos (-7), and Seahawks (+1.5). 

What does ATS mean in the NFL?

ATS in NFL betting stands for “against the spread.” It refers to how often a team covers the point spread in its games. Bettors use ATS records to track performance relative to expectations, not just wins and losses.

What does against the spread mean?

Against the spread (ATS) betting means wagering on whether a team will cover the point spread set by oddsmakers - not just win the game. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.  

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