NFL Picks Against the Spread: ATS Predictions for Every Divisional Round Game
After a 4-2 record in the Wild Card Round, I'm targeting another successful weekend in my NFL picks against the spread for the Divisional Round.
The Divisional Round features three of four games with a spread of four points or less. The only exception will occur at Lumen Field, where the Seattle Seahawks are the 7.5-point betting favorite over the San Francisco 49ers. The analysis below is part of the NFL Divisional Round predictions.
🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Divisional Round ATS predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for the Divisional Round based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Bills (-1) vs. Broncos | Bills (-1) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks (-7.5) | 49ers (+7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texans vs. Patriots (-2.5) | Patriots (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rams (-4) vs. Bears | Bears (+4) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 ATS picks for Divisional Round
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in the Divisional Round.
Bills (-1) vs. Broncos ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Two words, one name: Josh Allen.
The Bills QB is a man possessed, driven by an insatiable appetite to win it all. In the playoffs since 2020, Allen has averaged 306 total yards per game, with 32 TDs and just four picks.
Denver's defense is inarguably better than Jacksonville's. However, I'm backing the Bills' defense to keep Denver's middling 15th-ranked offense at bay. That should allow Allen to do what he does best. Even though Bo Nix enjoyed an excellent sophomore campaign, he's facing the daunting prospect of a first playoff game.
That Grand Canyon-sized gulf in experience under center will be what this game comes down to. BetMGM offers the Bills at -1 at standard -110 juice.
🏇 Bills vs. Broncos prediction
- Our Liam Fox has an opposing viewpoint, believing Allen's otherworldly escapades won't be enough against such an imposing defense
- He describes in his Bills vs. Broncos prediction why he thinks the No. 1 seed will move on
🔥 More Divisional Round picks
49ers (+7.5) vs. Seahawks ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The 49ers are the embodiment of resilience and resistance. Despite a litany of injuries throughout the season, they are 8-2 ATS on the road.
I'm backing the 49ers based on the fact that I believe the collective, at least those who are healthy, will be galvanized, not only because of upsetting the defending champs on the road, but also after seeing another one of their stars, George Kittle, go down with a season-ending injury.
Winning the game might be too much to ask, but I'm confident the never-say-die 49ers can keep it within a converted score.
⛏️ 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction
- I also backed San Francisco in my 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction
Patriots (-2.5) vs. Texans ⭐⭐⭐⭐
That Texans defense is a formidable bunch. However, it has faced only two top-10 offenses (via DVOA) in the previous 11 games, and it beat up on an out-of-sorts, bang-average Steelers offense in the wild-card game.
It will now face the league's third-best unit, led by Drake Maye, an MVP front-runner who plays with the composure of a QB five years his elder. In addition, the Texans offense was disjointed for most of the wild-card win, finally breaking through against an exhausted Steelers defense after the contest had already been decided.
FanDuel offers the Patriots at -2.5.
🪖 Texans vs. Patriots prediction
- For more analysis on why I'm backing the Patriots, here's my Texans vs. Patriots prediction
Bears (+4) vs. Rams ⭐⭐⭐
The Bears improved to 7-2 at Soldier Field with the wild-card win over the Green Bay Packers. One of those losses came in Week 1, long before Ben Johnson's philosophy and game scheming had enough time to percolate.
The Los Angeles Rams, meanwhile, are 5-5 ATS on the road after escaping Carolina.
It's not a fluke that this Chicago team continually finds ways to keep the opposition close. I don't see that changing at home, with a raucous, starved-for-success fan base in chilly conditions that should favour the underdogs.
🐻 Rams vs. Bears prediction
- Is Chicago the team of destiny? Probably not, but that doesn't mean they won't keep things close against a Rams team that is far inferior on the road
- In my Rams vs. Bears prediction, I cover in more detail why Chicago at +4 is the best ATS bet
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