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Patriots vs. Chargers Week 8 Picks: Charged Up

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 27, 2021 10:19 AM EDT • 2 min 16 sec read.

Justin Herbert had the worst game of his career last season against New England but look for a major bounce back this Sunday. Read more in our Chargers and Patriots picks for Week 8.

All three of the Los Angeles Chargers' home games have come against teams with winning records, but they will finally get an under-.500 team in Week 8. Los Angeles is 2-1 both straight up and against the spread at home while the Pats and 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS on the road.

New England is coming off a monster 54-13 victory over Miami and enters this game as a 5.5-point underdog.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 8 matchup between the Patriots and Chargers (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

Patriots vs. Chargers Week 8 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, October 31, 4:05 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CAWeather: 65 degrees, sunny

Patriots vs. Chargers Odds Analysis

This is the third time this season the Patriots have been underdogs and is also their second-highest point spread. They covered as 6.5-point home underdogs against the Buccaneers in Week 4.

The Over/Under has ticked up a full point to 49, as most sportsbooks opened at 48 earlier in the week. Both teams have been more profitable to the Under, however. New England enters with an O/U record of 3-4, while the Under has cashed in five of Los Angeles’ first six games. The SBR consensus does show nearly 80 percent of bettors favoring the Over, though, which is where we are leaning for this matchup.

Patriots vs. Chargers Picks

Los Angeles -5.5 (-105) (???)Over 49 (-110) (???)

SEE ALSO: Buccaneers vs. Saints Week 8 Picks

Patriots vs. Chargers Predictions

Los Angeles -5.5 (-105)

There's no denying that the Patriots are coming off one of the most impressive performances of the season. Scoring 54 points on any NFL team does not happen very often. While New England swept its season series against the Jets for the sixth consecutive year, it is just 1-4 against the rest of the NFL. And that one win was against the 1-6 Texans.

A road game against the Chargers will represent New England’s biggest challenge to date. The Patriots embarrassed the Chargers 45-0 in Los Angeles in Week 13 of last season, which still stands as the worst of Justin Herbert’s young career. He completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes and threw two interceptions.

That game will resonate with Herbert and the rest of the Chargers, who are out for revenge this year. The Patriots could be without star safety Devin McCourty, which may force New England to use practice squad players to round out a depleted secondary.

That is not a good recipe for success when facing the NFL’s seventh-ranked passing attack. We're backing Herbert and L.A. as home faves in our Patriots and Chargers Week 8 picks.

Under 49 (-110)

Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones is coming off his first career 300-yard game, and it was clear Bill Belichick opened up the playbook for him last week. Jones had a season-high four completions of at least 25 yards against the Jets and has earned the confidence of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who is continuing to let him flourish.

In addition to the confidence in New England’s offense, this is not a vintage Belichick defense. The Patriots are two weeks removed from allowing 567 yards of total offense to the Cowboys, which is the most ever by a Belichick-coached team.

Thus, we are high on each team’s chances of scoring points.

SEE ALSO: Dolphins vs. Bills Week 8 Picks

Picks made on 10/27/2021 at 10:22 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.