Patriots vs. Browns Picks, Predictions NFL Week 6: Will Cleveland’s Porous Run Defense Prove Costly Again?

NFL Week 6 picks Patriots vs Browns on October 16.
Mike Spector
Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 13, 2022 6:37 AM EDT • 3 minute read

The New England Patriots are looking to build off a dominant shutout victory in Week 5. Read on for our Patriots-Browns picks.

The Detroit Lions entered Week 5 as the highest-scoring team in the league (35 points per game), but the Patriots shut them out and held them to 312 total yards. It marked the fourth consecutive season New England has shut out at least one opponent.

Cleveland has lost three games this season and is 0-3 when quarterback Jacoby Brissett throws an interception. Last week’s loss was particularly excruciating, as Browns kicker Cade York went 0-for-2 on field-goal attempts, including a potential 54-yard game-winner with 11 seconds remaining.

Here are our best picks and predictions for the Week 6 matchup between the Patriots and Browns (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).     

Patriots vs. Browns Game Info

Date: Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Weather: 55 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, 12-mph W wind

Patriots vs. Browns Odds

Patriots vs. Browns Odds Analysis

All sportsbooks are in unison with Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite. The Patriots are drawing 62% of the cash and 64% of the tickets.

Most sportsbooks are offering a total of 43.5, while a few are as low as 43. The largest wagers are smashing the Over, which is getting 87% of the cash and 61% of the tickets.

Patriots vs. Browns Picks

  • Spread: Patriots +2.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: Over 43 (-110)
  • Prop bet: Rhamondre Stevenson Over rushing yards (Off)

Patriots vs. Browns ATS Pick

Patriots +2.5 (+100) ★★

New England and Cleveland mirror each other in many ways, even if the Patriots will again not have Mac Jones under center. Both teams will look to win with a physical running game and prefer to be conservative in their passing game. The glaring difference is that we trust New England’s defense to get more stops than Cleveland’s.

Rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe may not be the long-term answer at quarterback for New England, but he has not done anything to screw things up. He should continue to progress against a Browns defense that ranks 30th in defensive DVOA despite playing the third-easiest schedule to this point.

New England’s confidence should be sky-high after its defense outscored Detroit’s offense last week and forced an additional six turnovers on downs. The absence of Damien Harris (out with a hamstring injury) is not as severe, considering Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for a career-high 161 yards last week.

Patriots vs. Browns O/U Pick

Over 43 (-110) ★★★★

The Browns are the first team to rush for 170-plus yards in each of the first five games of a season since the 1975 Buffalo Bills. In addition, Nick Chubb is coming off his eighth career game of 100-plus rushing yards and two or more touchdowns.

Though Detroit became one-dimensional last week after falling behind early, Cleveland should be able to pound its running game in a contest that should be tight for four quarters.

Zappe and the Patriots went 3-of-9 on third down last week and 0-for-4 in the red zone. However, New England scored on five of its first six drives (one touchdown and four field goals), and this game should be high-scoring if the Patriots can finish drives more consistently.

Patriots vs. Browns Prop Pick

Stevenson Over rushing yards (OFF) ★★★

Cleveland ranks 28th in rushing defense, allowing 138.2 yards on the ground per game. Without Harris to take away carries, Stevenson should be in for a heavy workload against a Browns defense that just allowed Chargers running back Austin Ekeler to run for a career-high 176 yards.

In addition, Ekeler’s 98 yards above expected were the most for a player in a game during the last two seasons. That speaks to the Browns’ shoddy tackling and ability to be dominated in the trenches, and that is precisely what we expect this week.

We would play Stevenson’s total up to 85 yards.

Where to Bet on Patriots-Browns Picks

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Patriots-Browns picks made 10/13/2022 at 5:59 a.m. ET

Written by:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”