Top Patriots vs. Bills Prop Picks for Wild Card Weekend

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 14, 2022 7:32 AM EST • 2 min 43 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - JANUARY 09: Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots delivers a pass over the defense of the Miami Dolphins in the second half of the game at Hard Rock Stadium on January 09, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Michael Reaves / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots as 4.5-point home favorites in Round 3 of their season series. Here are some of our favorite Patriots-Bills NFL prop picks for this AFC East Wild Card Weekend matchup.

When the Bills play the Patriots in Orchard Park, will Bill Belichick don the Midshipmen's hat and run the ball down their throats once again? It's expected to be one of the coldest games ever played in Buffalo, and Belichick has been preparing his team by practicing outside all week.

The season series is tied at one game each, with both road teams winning the first two games. Buffalo lost to the Patriots 14-10 in Week 14. However, Buffalo defeated New England 33-21 in Week 16. We pick our favorite props for the Wild Card Weekend rubber match in Buffalo.

Here are my top prop picks for the NFL's Wild Card Weekend matchup between the Patriots and Bills (odds via PointsBet, Barstool Sportsbook. and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Patriots vs. Bills Prop Picks

Josh Allen anytime touchdown (+185 via PointsBet) ????Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown (+255 via Barstool Sportsbook) ????Mac Jones first touchdown scorer (+5000 via DraftKings Sportsbook) ??

Patriots vs. Bills Prop Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

Allen anytime touchdown (+185)

As the Bills and Patriots played their first game in Buffalo in a cold wind tunnel, one of the biggest regrets for Buffalo was not taking advantage of Allen's running ability more. The Bills corrected this in the second meeting when Allen ended up carrying the ball twice as much.

This season, Allen leads the Bills with twelve rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line. Running back Devin Singletary is second on the team with eight attempts inside the five. Allen has more red-zone carries and a longer price to score a touchdown. At PointsBet, Singletary is +125 for an anytime touchdown, while Allen is +185. It is more valuable for me to invest in someone who is getting more opportunities at a longer price.

The best number for Allen can be found at PointsBet, where he is +185. For this prop, the shortest number is a +160 at DraftKings and Barstool.

Stevenson anytime touchdown (+255)

In Buffalo, Patriots running back Damien Harris scored his team's lone offensive touchdown, but it was Stevenson's hard-running style that got the majority of the work. Harris had 10 carries to Stevenson's 24. Stevenson missed the second meeting after landing on the COVID-19 list.

With extreme cold forecasted in Buffalo for this matchup on Saturday night, it wouldn't surprise me if Belichick opted for Stevenson's powerful running style. In terms of a touchdown at any time, Harris is +120 and Stevenson can be found as high as +260. Holding a touchdown ticket at +260 is a lot more valuable than holding one at +120 if Stevenson once again out carries Harris.

Stevenson's odds vary greatly between the major sportsbooks. His longest odds can be found at Barstool at +260. There is no consensus number across the books, as FanDuel is as short as +120 for him to score an anytime touchdown.

According to some bookmakers, it's a dead heat as to which New England running back you should bet on. For example, PointsBet has Harris at +125 and Stevenson at +130. You should capitalize on Barstools' mispricing on this anytime touchdown prop bet.

Jones first touchdown scorer (+5000

Last but not least, we have a prop play that is a real bomber. Jones has scored zero touchdowns in his career, but this is a play on the number given.

During his last meeting with the Bills, Jones ran for a season-high 33 yards on six carries. Over the last several weeks, he has run the ball a lot more than he did earlier in the season.

Currently, DraftKings has Jones at +5000 to be the first touchdown scorer in this game. These are much longer odds than other sportsbooks decided to post, and that's what caught my eye. Among the books, PointsBet has the worst number on this prop at +1800, whereas BetMGM and FanDuel have it closer to +3000.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting t o ols.

Patriots-Bills prop picks made on 1/14/2022 at 11:56 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.