Packers vs. Cowboys Expert Picks: Sunday Night Football Best Bets & SNF Predictions

🧀 Packers -6.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I expect Packers quarterback Jordan Love to carve up a pass defense that ranks 29th in completion percentage allowed (77%), last in yards per attempt (10.4), last in touchdown percentage (7.8), and last in Total QBR (73) in zone coverage this year.

As long as Green Bay cleans up its 14 penalties (the team’s most in 15 seasons) that it committed last week, it should roll against a Cowboys team playing without top wideout CeeDee Lamb.

⬇️ Dak Prescott longest completion Under 34.5 yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In the season opener at Philadelphia, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott had a long completion of 32 yards. It went to wideout CeeDee Lamb. In Week 2 against the Giants, Prescott had a long completion of 33 yards. It also went to Lamb. Then last week at Chicago, Prescott hit 5-foot-9 receiver KaVontae Turpin for 37 yards … while Lamb was sidelined with an ankle injury that landed him on injured reserve.

So Prescott has beaten this long-completion projection once in three games — against a defense that has allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the NFL. Now here come the Packers and their third-ranked pass defense. Long completions against Green Bay this season: 32, 20 and 17 yards.

🤠 Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown scorer (+200) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Packers' 215 yards allowed to tight ends are the third-most among teams with just three games played entering Sunday. They've allowed the position to catch 72.4% of their targets for 7.41 yards per.

Ferguson was targeted 26 times over the last two games and caught 21 of them for 160 yards as the team's most targeted player in both games. The Cowboys are a 7-point underdog with an Over/Under of 47.5 points. Ferguson should be the primary beneficiary in a pass-heavy game plan once again.

🧀 Matthew Golden first touchdown scorer (+1300) ⭐⭐⭐

The Green Bay Packers finally bit the bullet and drafted a wide receiver in the first round of this year’s draft, but the results have been underwhelming thus far. Golden has caught just six of eight targets for 68 yards and no touchdowns – but we’re betting on him to turn things around by scoring the first touchdown in tonight’s edition of Sunday Night Football.

This pick largely comes down to the Dallas defense. The Cowboys struggle to stop opposing wide receivers. They have allowed the most receiving yards to the position this year (661) to go with the most receiving touchdowns as well (6). They coughed up three touchdowns to wideouts against the Bears just last week.

🧀 Micah Parsons to record 2+ sacks (+220) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Parsons had four games out of 13 games played last season in which he recorded 2+ sacks. That rate of 30.7% isn’t too far out of line with the implied probability of 31.25% at these odds.

The Cowboys have allowed their quarterback to be sacked 1.7 times per game this season, which ranks inside the top 10 in the NFL, but I think the unique nature of Parsons’ departure from Dallas inspires an outlier performance by the league’s most impactful defensive weapon.

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