Packers vs. Chiefs Week 9 Picks: Packers Keep it Close Without Rodgers

Two of the best quarterbacks in the game were supposed to face each other for the first time in their careers, as Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers was set to meet Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. However, Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19, putting a wrench in those plans. Will backup quarterback Jordan Love keep the Packers train rolling, or will Mahomes solve his turnover problems and lead the Chiefs to a much-needed win?

The Packers have won and covered the spread in seven straight games since a 38-3 Week 1 loss to the Saints. Green Bay is now 33-7 since head coach Matt LaFleur took over the job in 2019, tied for the second-best winning percentage through a coach's first 40 games in NFL history. The Packers are 6-11-1 since 2008 when a quarterback other than Rodgers starts.

The Chiefs got back in the win column with a narrow 20-17 victory over the New York Giants on Monday Night Football last week. They have covered the spread in just two of their eight games and are 0-4 against the spread in their four home games.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 9 matchup between the Packers and the Chiefs (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Packers vs. Chiefs Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 7, 4:25 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MOWeather: 66 degrees, mostly sunny

Packers vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis

The Packers are underdogs for the third time in five true road games this year. They won outright as bigger underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals earlier this season. This game was bet down as low as a pick 'em at many sportsbooks and spiked to -8 at most books after the news of Rodgers' illness broke.

Like the point spread, Rodgers' absence drastically affected the Over/Under for this game. The total dropped from an opening line of 55.5 or 56 at most places to where it currently stands at 48.

Packers vs. Chiefs Betting Picks

Packers +7.5 (-110) ???Under 48 (-110) ??

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Packers vs. Chiefs Predictions

Packers +7.5 (-115) ???

As of this writing, Packers wide receiver Davante Adams remains sidelined and on the reserve/COVID-19 list, while Green Bay's other top receivers, Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, returned to practice. This pick comes with the assumption that Adams will be activated for Sunday, but with the way Green Bay played without him against Arizona, we are not so sure he needs to be.

The Packers ran the ball 34 times and had 11 rushing first downs against the Cardinals, which were both season highs. They now face a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th against the run, allowing 121.8 yards per game. This bodes well for Love to feel comfortable in his first start, as the running-back tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon can take the pressure off him.

The most significant edge Green Bay has in this game is in turnover margin. Kansas City has four more turnovers (19) than the next worst team in the league after committing just 16 turnovers all of last season. The Packers are tied for second with a +8 turnover differential, and that can prove massive in a game projected to be this close.

Under 48 (-110) ??

Kansas City's offense has not looked right all year. Teams have been keying on pass-catchers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, as the Chiefs do not have a reliable receiver outside of those two. Kelce has just one touchdown since Week 2 and 65 yards receiving or less in four of the last five games.

One of the biggest reasons for backing the Under is Kansas City's poor offensive line play. Entering last week, the Chiefs allowed pressure 33 percent of the time (sixth-most) while facing the lowest percentage of blitzes (13 percent) in the NFL. Green Bay's front pressured Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray on 35 percent of his dropbacks last week, suggesting Mahomes will be under constant duress this week.

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Picks made 11/02/2021 at 1:46 p.m. ET