How Packers' Trade for Micah Parsons Shakes Up NFL Futures Betting Markets

The NFL season begins in less than a week, and the Green Bay Packers got a jump on the festivities with their biggest move of the offseason by acquiring two-time All-Pro and former AP Defensive Rookie of the Year Micah Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys.

The Packers dealt two first-round draft picks and defensive lineman Kenny Clark to the Cowboys before signing Parsons to a four-year, $188 million contract, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

The move almost immediately shortened the Packers' Super Bowl odds to a best price of +1300 via BetMGM, made Parsons the Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite (+600), and added a win to Green Bay's 2025-26 Over/Under win total.

But I have my eyes locked elsewhere while looking for value in the futures betting markets for my NFL picks.

🔮 Packers futures 2025-26

Odds via BetMGM as of Thursday, Aug. 28 (after the Parsons trade).

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⚖️ Packers' 2025-26 win total

The Packers' 2025-26 NFL win total was set at 9.5 at FanDuel as of Tuesday. They were a slight favorite to cash the Over with -115 odds on that side of the betting line, and -105 odds on the Under.

Two days later, and with Parsons now anchoring a defense that ranked seventh in DVOA a year ago, FanDuel has bumped that win total up to 10.5 with +100 odds on the Over (returning a $10 profit on a winning $10 bet) and -120 odds on the Under.

BetMGM had the Packers' win total market pulled at the time of writing following the trade.

I'll be backing the Over 10.5 (+100) on the team I think will win the NFC North (+190 via Caesars) after making Parsons the NFL's fourth-highest paid non-quarterback.

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🏆 Packers' Super Bowl odds

The Packers' Super Bowl odds dropped from around +1800 to a best price of +1300 following the acquisition of Parsons. The new Super Bowl odds of +1300 via BetMGM represent an implied win probability of 7.14% and would return a profit of $130 on a winning $10 bet. The same bet made at +1800 would've fetched a $180 profit.

💰 My best Packers futures bet

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

📈 Jordan Love to win MVP (+2500)

While I'm very bullish on the Packers' 2025-26 season as a whole following the acquisition of Parsons, there's one bet I think has improved more than any other, and it's one I already loved: Jordan Love to win MVP.

I placed this bet at +2000 via FanDuel during the sportsbook's Futures Day promotion. FanDuel has already dropped Love's odds to win MVP to +1600 (5.88% implied win probability), so Packers fans and bettors alike should be flocking to bet the lingering outlier at DraftKings. The +2500 odds would return a profit of $250 on a winning $10 bet.

Love was among the NFL MVP betting favorites for much of last season despite having to battle through knee and groin injuries. He finished his second full season as the Packers' starting quarterback with 3,389 yards and 25 touchdowns against 11 interceptions while guiding his still-rebuilding team to a 9-6 record and No. 3 seed in the ultra-competitive NFC North.

However, there's reason to believe both the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions will regress this season. Free agency (the Vikings lost QB Sam Darnold), coaching changes (the Lions lost their offensive and defensive coordinators), and injuries and/or suspensions (Vikings receiver Jordan Addison is suspended for the first three games of the season) all took a toll.

Well, the Packers (finally) got Love some help in the passing game in the form of rookie wide receiver Matthew Golden. And the addition of Parsons on defense should have the team playing with bigger leads and starting drives with superior field position.

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