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NFL Value Picks to Make the Playoffs: AFC West Teams Can Make a Run

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 10, 2022 7:29 AM EST • 2 min 44 sec read.

Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers celebrates a touchdown during the first half in the game against the Atlanta Falcons, and we offer our top Bears vs. Chargers predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers celebrates a touchdown during the first half in the game against the Atlanta Falcons. Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images via AFP.

After the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears were eliminated from playoff contention, we pondered the teams that presented good value to make the playoffs. Here are our top NFL value picks to make the playoffs entering Week 14’s action.

While no team has officially clinched a playoff spot yet, five teams (the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, and Minnesota Vikings) had greater than a 99% chance of doing so, per FiveThirtyEight’s NFL predictions. Minnesota can become the first team to clinch its division (and a subsequent playoff berth) this week, just needing a win over Detroit. But with five weeks left in the regular season, which teams further down the odds list could cash better paydays for bettors who think they have a playoff run in them?

Here are our top NFL value picks to make the playoffs (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook).

NFL Value Picks to Make the Playoffs

  • Washington Commanders (-144 via FanDuel)
  • Los Angeles Chargers (+140 via DraftKings)
  • Las Vegas Raiders (+760 via FanDuel)

NFL Value Pick Predictions to Make the Playoffs

Commanders (-144)

The Washington Commanders are our chalkiest pick to make the playoffs, as they are in the eighth spot in the NFC entering this week. After a bye this week, their next game is a home game against a New York Giants team that will likely enter with the same record as them (7-5-1) if they lose to Philadelphia this week. Considering Washington was favored in Metlife Stadium last week, one would figure the team would be roughly a field-goal favorite in that rematch. A win would boost its playoff odds considerably, knowing it would have the head-to-head tiebreak over New York. 

No other team behind the Commanders has more than five wins, so there isn't too much pressure from any team to catch them. Washington is 6-1-1 since starting the season 1-4 and is 5-1-1 with Taylor Heinicke as its starter. And with winnable games at a Brock Purdy-led San Francisco 49ers team and a home game against Cleveland in Weeks 16 and 17, a victory against the Giants in Week 15 could be what the Commanders need to vault to a playoff spot. 

We opt for this wager at FanDuel, as competitors like DraftKings are much steeper at -165 odds.

Chargers (+140)

Los Angeles has a 30% chance to make the playoffs entering this week, as it is one of two 6-6 teams (the New England Patriots are the other) who are one game behind the 7-5 New York Jets for the final playoff spot in the AFC. However, the Jets are 9.5-point underdogs to Buffalo this week, and the Chargers have a winnable home game against Miami after Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle left last week’s game with injuries.

If the Chargers were to beat Miami, their playoff odds would likely skyrocket with a manageable schedule down the stretch. Los Angeles should be favored in its remaining four games (home vs. Tennessee, road vs. Indianapolis, home vs. Rams, road vs. Denver). Thus, we are getting behind these +140 odds at DraftKings, which is the best value compared to competitors like FanDuel, who are at +138 or worse.

Raiders (+760) 

At 5-7 and two games out of a playoff spot, the Las Vegas Raiders would likely need to win out to clinch a wild card. However, Las Vegas has already won three straight and will probably be favored in its next three games against the Rams (5.5-point favorites for TNF), Patriots, and Pittsburgh Steelers. Home games against San Francisco and Kansas City to end the season will not be easy, but the 49ers’ ceiling is much lower with Purdy under center, and the Chiefs may not have anything to play for in the last week of the season.

Las Vegas is going to get healthier with the eventual returns of pass-catchers Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, and the offense is scary as it is, as it has averaged 29.7 points per game during the three-game winning streak.

DraftKings is offering +700 odds for the Raiders to make the playoffs, so we can't pass up the +760 odds at FanDuel for a small wager.

Where to Bet on NFL Value Picks 

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NFL playoff value picks made 12/6/2022 at 6:25 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.