UPDATED: NFL Week 16 Betting Odds, Lines and Picks

Down the stretch they come in the National Football League and every week is now seemingly at the whims of COVID-19 testing. We track the changes in lines and odds for NFL Week 16, and make our top picks against the spread and Over/Under for each game.

Let’s start with the biggest COVID-19 cases, in terms of impact. The Kansas City Chiefs have had a massive outbreak, which includes tight end Travis Kelce and receiver Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs will not be the same if they can’t return to action this week.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have to dive deeper at the skill positions after injuries to wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, as well as running back Leonard Fournette. They are getting WR Antonio Brown back from suspension, so that is something.

After shutting out the Bucs in Week 15, the New Orleans Saints are going to be heading into Week 16 with third-string quarterback Ian Book getting a shot because Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian are headed for the COVID-19 list.   

That has resulted in a 5-point shift in the line of the Dolphins-Saints Monday nighter. The Atlanta Falcons have gone from 3.5 to 6-point favorites against the Detroit Lions. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-point favorites after a COVID-19 outbreak hit the New York Jets, who opened as 2.5-point favorites. Player status affects lines and outcomes, obviously, but there is a lot of moving and shaking in recent weeks.

Here’s a look at the updated NFL odds for Week 16, along with my picks based on the opening lines (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

SEE ALSO: NFL Comeback Player of the Year Picks

NFL Odds, Lines and Picks for Week 16: Thursday Night Football

49ers (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U) vs. Titans (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Opening line: 49ers -3.5Current line: 49ers -3

Opening total: 44.5Current total: 44.5

The 49ers have the advantage of their top receivers being relatively healthy though the running game is a little less certain with Elijah Mitchell (knee) still out of the lineup. The Titans are cobbling together a rushing attack thanks to D’Onta Foreman. Fifty-nine percent of the tickets and 68% of the money is on the 49ers but I still don’t mind the Titans as home underdogs.

Pick: Titans +3 (???), Under 44.5 (???)

SEE ALSO: 49ers vs. Titans Picks

NFL Odds, Lines and Picks for Week 16: Saturday Slate

Browns (7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS, 7-7 O/U) vs. Packers (11-3 SU, 11-3 ATS, 6-8 O/U)

Opening line: Packers -7.5Current line: Packers -7.5

Opening total: 45Current total: 45.5

After losing to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Browns remain a game back in the jammed AFC North, so they are in the hunt and hope to have QB Baker Mayfield back from the COVID-19 list. The Browns will need him because the Packers have won all six of their home games, by an average margin of 13.7 points per game. No surprise, then, that 92% of tickets and 91% of the money is on the Packers.

Pick: Packers -7.5 (??), Over 45.5 (???)

SEE ALSO: Browns vs. Packers Picks

Colts (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS, 8-6 O/U) vs. Cardinals (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Opening line: Cardinals -2Current line: Cardinals -1.5

Opening total: 49.5Current total: 48.5

The Cardinals have lost back-to-back games and in a 30-12 Week 15 loss at the Detroit Lions, they did not look like a team that had the league’s best record for much of the season. The Colts have one regulation loss in their last 11 games, and it was against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Fifty-seven percent of the tickets and 66% of the money is riding with Indy.

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (???), Under 48.5 (???)

SEE ALSO: Colts vs. Cardinals Picks

NFL Odds, Lines and Picks for Week 16: Sunday Slate

Buccaneers (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U) vs. Panthers (5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Opening line: Buccaneers -11Current line: Buccaneers -10

Opening total: 44.5Current total: 44

It says something about the state of the Panthers that they are double-digit underdogs against a Buccaneers team that has lost Godwin, Evans, Fournette, and star linebacker Lavonte David to injury. It should matter who plays and the Bucs have just one road win by more than 10 points all season. Nevertheless, 88% of the money and 85% of the tickets are on Tampa Bay.

Pick: Panthers +10 (??), Under 44 (???)

Chargers (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U) vs. Texans (3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-8 O/U)

Opening line: Chargers -9.5Current line: Chargers -10

Opening total: 46.5Current total: 45.5

The Chargers are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak that has defensive end Joey Bosa unavailable and puts the status of center Corey Linsley and running back Austin Ekeler, among others, in doubt. The situation is not much better for Houston, as receiver Brandin Cooks is one of many on the COVID-19 list. As expected, 93% of the money and 70% of the tickets are on the Chargers. That percentage of tickets has been falling, possibly reflecting the wild uncertainty over the COVID status of so many players on both sides.

Pick: Chargers -10 (??), Under 45.5 (???)

Giants (4-10 SU, 6-8 ATS, 4-9-1 O/U) vs. Eagles (7-7 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

Opening line: Eagles -10Current line: Eagles -9.5

Opening total: 42.5Current total: 40.5

The Giants have not announced whether QB Jake Fromm will be making his first career start, but it seems likely. The Giants’ only win in the last five weeks was against Philadelphia in Week 12. Conversely, that was the Eagles’ only loss in their last five games. Given those trends, it’s perhaps expected that 82% of tickets and 92% of the money is on the Eagles.

Pick: Giants +9.5 (??), Under 40.5 (??)

SEE ALSO: Giants vs. Eagles Picks

Ravens (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U) vs. Bengals (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-8 O/U)

Opening line: Bengals -2.5Current line: Bengals -3

Opening total: 44.5Current total: 45.5

Uncertainty remains in the status of Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, who missed last week due to an ankle injury. Baltimore also has a handful of defenders on the COVID-19 list and that could allow for a more offensive game that would play into Cincinnati’s hands. While 76% of tickets are siding with the Ravens, only 54% of the cash is on Baltimore’s side so there may be some big money siding with the Bengals.

Pick: Bengals -3 (????), Under 45.5 (???)

SEE ALSO: Ravens vs. Bengals Picks

Lions (2-11-1 SU, 9-5 ATS, 5-9 O/U) vs. Falcons (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-8 O/U) 

Opening line: Falcons -3.5Current line: Falcons -6

Opening total: 43.5Current total: 42.5

Lions QB Jared Goff has landed on the COVID-19 list and while he could test his way back onto the field, there is uncertainty regarding his status. The possibility that Tim Boyle could be at quarterback for the Lions leads to Atlanta being a popular pick; 82% of tickets and 83% of cash rest on the Falcons.

Pick: Falcons -6 (???), Under 42.5 (???)

Jaguars (2-12 SU, 4-10 ATS, 3-11 O/U) vs. Jets (3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

Opening line: Jets -2.5Current line: Jaguars -1

Opening total: 42Current total: 41.5

The Jaguars as road favorites is a novel concept but the Jets are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak that has running back Michael Carter as one of many with a questionable status for Week 16. There is some difference of opinion on the game as 66% of tickets side with the Jets and 57% of the money is on the Jaguars.

Pick: Jets +1 (??), Under 41.5 (???)

SEE ALSO: Jaguars vs. Jets Picks

Rams (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-6-1 O/U) vs. Vikings (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

Opening line: Rams -3Current line: Rams -3

Opening total: 49.5Current total: 49.5

The Rams are pushing for the NFC West lead after three straight wins whereas the Vikings have won two in a row and are in more desperate straits in their push for a playoff spot. While just 52% of tickets are on the Rams, the money (77%) tilts much more heavily in that direction.

Pick: Vikings +3 (??), Over 49.5 (???)

SEE ALSO: Rams vs. Vikings Picks

Bills (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 7-7 O/U) vs. Patriots (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 6-8 O/U)

Opening line: Patriots -2.5Current line: Patriots -2

Opening total: 44.5Current total: 43.5

The Bills are missing guard Jon Feliciano and receiver Cole Beasley due to COVID-19 protocols, but this is a prime revenge game for Buffalo after losing at home to New England in Week 13. The Patriots have some injuries and COVID-19 cases that could leave them vulnerable offensively so 76% of the tickets and 64% of the money is on Buffalo.

Pick: Bills +2 (???), Over 43.5 (???)

Bears (4-10 SU, 4-10 ATS, 5-9 O/U) vs. Seahawks (5-9 SU, 7-7 ATS, 3-10-1 O/U)

Opening line: Seahawks -7Current line: Seahawks -6.5

Opening total: 43.5Current total: 43.5

There is a divergence of opinion on this game. While only 37% of tickets are on Chicago, 55% of the money is on Bears. That gap was even larger before the spread dropped off of seven points. The Bears have a bunch of COVID-19 cases while the Seahawks' most notable case involves WR Tyler Lockett.

Pick: Bears +6.5 (???), Over 43.5 (???)

SEE ALSO: Bears vs. Seahawks Picks

Broncos (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS, 3-11 O/U) vs. Raiders (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS, 7-7 O/U) 

Opening line: Raiders -1.5Current line: Broncos -1

Opening total: 42.5Current total: 41.5

This matchup has the widest gap between the percentage of tickets and the percentage of money wagered and it is very symmetrical, with 64% of the tickets landing on the Raiders but 64% of the money on the Broncos. Drew Lock, who threw four picks at Las Vegas in a 37-12 loss last season, will start at quarterback for the Broncos while Teddy Bridgewater recovers from a concussion.

Pick: Raiders +1 (??), Over 41.5 (??)

SEE ALSO: Broncos vs. Raiders Picks

Steelers (7-6-1 SU, 6-8 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U) vs. Chiefs (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U) 

Opening line: Chiefs -10Current line: Chiefs -7.5

Opening total: 46.5Current total: 44.5

The Chiefs have had a massive COVID-19 outbreak and it includes Kelce and Hill, among many more. That explains the line dropping but there must be some faith in the marketplace that the Chiefs are going to get some of these players back for Week 16 to still expect them to win by more than a touchdown against Pittsburgh. As of Thursday afternoon, 90% of the tickets and 94% of the money ride on the Chiefs.

Pick: Steelers +7.5 (??), Under 44.5 (???)

SEE ALSO: Steelers vs. Chiefs Picks

Washington (6-8 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U) vs. Cowboys (10-4 SU, 11-3 ATS, 6-8 O/U)

Opening line: Cowboys -10Current line: Cowboys -10

Opening total: 47.5Current total: 47

Washington is in more of a spoiler role now and would likely relish that opportunity against its arch-rival. At the same time, the Cowboys have one regulation loss in the last six weeks and won by a touchdown in Washington in Week 14. Naturally, 88% of the tickets and 80% of the money is on the Cowboys.

Pick: Washington +10 (??), Under 47 (???)

SEE ALSO: Washington vs. Eagles Picks

NFL Odds, Lines and Picks for Week 16: Monday Night Football

Dolphins (7-7 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U) vs. Saints (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-8 O/U)

Opening line: Saints -3Current line: Dolphins -1.5

Opening total: 40.5Current total: 37.5

With late word that Saints QBs Hill and Siemian are headed to the COVID-19 list, Book is expected to make his first NFL start Monday night and that resulted in a major shift of the point spread. Fifty-three percent of the tickets are on the Dolphins, yet 58% of the cash still rides with the Saints. That could be changing.

Pick: Dolphins -1.5 (???), Over 37.5 (???)

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Picks based on the Week 16 NFL odds from 12/23/2021 at 2 p.m. ET.