NFL Futures: Comeback Player of the Year Picks and the Case for Joe Burrow

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has been the odds-on favorite in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year futures market all season. With his recent struggles, we investigate some other plays with our NFL Comeback Player of the Year picks.

Occasionally, we fall victim to a futures market where the winner was seemingly determined early in the season. Too often, we then kind of stop paying attention to what is happening in that given market. Every time we briefly check in on the numbers, we see the same player or team as the favorite, and we quickly move on. 

I feel as though this is how the NFL Comeback Player of the Year futures market has played out this season. 

Below, we highlight some potential value picks for the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

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NFL Comeback Player of the Year Picks

Overlooking Joe Burrow 

Every time I open the odds, I see Prescott as a healthy favorite. Up to this point in the season, it made sense to me that he was the favorite. I didn’t have any issues with how this market was playing out, until now!

Prescott hasn’t been lighting it up over his last five games. He has thrown only five touchdowns, to go along with five interceptions since Week 11. Below are his numbers through Week 15, compared to those of Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow:

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On top of having similar numbers to Prescott, Burrow is currently the number one graded QB in the entire NFL by Pro Football Focus. These statistics between Burrow and Prescott are way too close for Prescott to have such a significant edge in the odds.

https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1472966683170160643

The value in this market currently lies with Burrow and I expect to see these numbers adjusted sooner than later. There is no doubt that Burrow’s odds will be shorter in due time and Prescott’s odds will head in the other direction.

However, there is another player who might have something to say about this market before the end of the season

What about Nick Bosa?

Like Prescott and Burrow, San Francisco 49ers EDGE Nick Bosa is also coming off a season-ending knee injury in 2020, and he hasn’t missed a beat.

https://twitter.com/brgridiron/status/1473368053182308353

The best number on Bosa is at DraftKings Sportsbook at +1000. His odds for Comeback Player of the Year are as low as +800 at FanDuel Sportsbook and Barstool Sportsbook. 

Even at +1000 at DraftKings, I’m not running to bet on Bosa. He is having a fantastic season, but I believe this will be a race between Burrow and Prescott in the end. I’d much rather have Burrow in my pocket at +750 than Bosa at +1000.

I think Burrow will end up putting pressure on Prescott’s odds more than Bosa will. Just be sure to keep one eye on Bosa over these final three weeks of the regular season.

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